The Week Ahead (22nd April)

A gentle sprinting week before the flat season gets very busy from May onwards. Viking Spirit runs at Ponte on Monday and it is always a thrill to see good handicappers hurtling down the Epsom 5f, which they will on Wednesday.

Mon 23th   - 3.10 Pontefract - 6f Class 2 86-100 handiacap
Tues 24th   - Blank
Wed 25th   - 1.50 Epsom - 5f Class 3 81-95 handicap
Thurs 26th  - 7.00 Yarmouth- 5f Class 4 71-85 handicap 3YO only
Fri 27th     - Blank
Sat 28th    - Leicester - 6f Class 4 71-85 handicap
           - Ripon - 6f Class 3 81-95 handicap 3YO only
Sun 29th    - Blank

Monday 23rd April - 3.10 Pontefract - 6f Class 2 86-100 Handicap

This is one of the better early season sprint handicaps. The fast ground, stiff turning track and low draw advantage help to give the race shape. We also have a very quick natural front runner who goes well at Pontefract so there will be no hanging about.

Several can be discarded on account of the fast ground - Turnkey, Coleorton Dancer, Zomerlust and Commando Scott. The trip will probably not suit Fantasy Explorer. Out After Dark and Mr Wolf will probably be better for the run. Charles Darwin, Viking Spirit and Obe Gold are drawn on the M 62 hard shoulder. Coeur Courageux has shown very little form for Dandy Nicholls so far. Connect is still high in the handicap on turf with a very inexperienced apprentice on board. Tara Too doesn’t look good enough at the weights. Sir Xaar is steadily falling down the handicap from a completely unrealistic 109 and will be suited by a stiff 6f, but little cause for optimism yet. Which leaves just three - Machinist, Kostar and Geojimali.

Machinist was thrown in at the deep end in Dubai, running in a 6f Group 3 race on Dirt and a 5f Dirt Conditions Stakes where he came a respectable 4th. He has run a reasonable race at Lingfield since coming back. He was close 2nd at Goodwood in September off his current 92 mark. Kostar came second twice off his current 92 mark in 2006. He should be suited by conditions tomorrow and put up a creditable effort in his first race of 2007. Geojimali is referred to in some detail earlier in the Blog - see Musselburgh 8th April. It is a shame that Viking Spirit has a bad draw. He is working nicely at home and although aimed at the Victoria Cup would have been a strong contender with a better draw.

I will probably post a selection tomorrow.

11 am Monday Geojimali is a steady 9/2 generally with no sign of 5/1 or better becoming available, though I am sure that 5/1 will pop up somewhere. This is not a great price but reasonable if the above analysis is near the mark. The only horse punters are showing much interest in is Out After Dark at 16/1 with some 14/1 still available. There is no reason to believe that he will go particularly well fresh. Charles Darwin (widest draw) has been withdrawn.

Geojimali at 9/2 or better is the Selection.

Update - At 11.14 am 5/1 Geojimali became available with SportingOdds bookmakers.


Post Mortem

Kostar improved around 10 lb on anything he had ever done in his 23 race career thus far , winning by five lengths off his highest winning mark and posting much the quickest comparative time of the afternoon. “Stuff happens” as Donald Rumsfeld might say. Of my three against the field Machinist also ran well, a strong finishing 3rd. Clive Cox tried to provide some explanation for Kostar’s surprising performance but I shouldn’t take any notice of what he said. We will probably be none the wiser until after Kostar’s next race. As Adam Kirby rode Kostar six times last year, and had as good a view as anybody today, maybe he can throw some light on it?

The apprentice on Geojimali found this a trickier task than at Musselburgh. He got a nice enough position early, 2/3rds down the field with room to manoeuvre but the warning signs were there before halfway. Rather than keep towards the outside he edged in and whenever a horse came close the jockey, not the horse, was intimidated and he lost ground. By the turn he was plumb last. With too much ground to make up he kept on, steering an erratic path, into 9th place, the horse just having a canter. So Musselburgh was a fluke and we won’t be backing this young man again until he has much more experience. With a clear outside passage we would have just ended up cursing Kostar anyway. Geojimali remains a horse to be very interested in over 6f, with a competent jockey on board and preferably some ease in the ground.

The RUK presenters seemed particularly taken with Fantasy Explorer, but his run just looked like a decent 5f horse doing his thing. He was one of the few horses capable of staying in touch with Mr Wolf, looked a threat approaching the final furlong and then faded. Mr Wolf again showed how well he goes at Pontefract with form figures now 1110112, the only poor run being when he went too fast on easy ground in this race last year. Viking Spirit had a good prep run for the Victoria Cup. He used up too much juice getting across from his bad draw into a prominent position chasing Mr Wolf, and tired late, losing 3rd close home. He is a horse to consider backing for a place in good 6f handicaps. Very talented and consistent but near his correct handicap mark.

Wenesday 25th April - 1.50 Epsom - 5f Class 3 81-95 Handicap

7 pm Tuesday  A specialists race. V. sharp downhill to halfway and all over in 55 seconds. There used to be a very big stand rail advantage, making it difficult for those drawn low. That draw advantage seems to have reduced over the years though ideally the stand rail is still the best place to be. In recent years they have often watered generously at Epsom so I would not expect the going to be exceptionally quick, but as this is the first race of the afternoon it is a doubt.

Some can be discarded. Classic Encounter (moderate recent form), Don’t Tell Sue (moved from Barry Hills, 1st time out, poor draw), Masta Plasta (Prob need run, inexp apprentice), Dhaular Dhar (surely too sharp, ran 7f last, not good draw to get into race), Idle Power (bit sharp, prob better for run), and Moorhouse Lad (bit sharp, bad draw, not well handicapped).

Cape Royal has been 1st, 3rd and 2nd in this race in the last three years. Last year he lost 3 lengths at the start and still ran a good race beaten by surprise winner Zowington. He has the plumb 13 stall but will he get out well enough to take advantage? Next to him is Bluebok who is a fast horse and chased Cape Royal at Beverley. Jamie Spencer is booked which is interesting. In the next stall is Jayanjay, a hold up horse who goes well at Epsom and has twice come with a wet sail to win one of these 5f races. However since switching to Philip Mitchells stable his form has gone downhill and he needs the field to stop in front of him. Pic Up Sticks goes well fresh and is a “tracker” who cannot be discounted. Magic Glade is a fast front runner who looks badly handicapped at present. Kay Two was a classy 2YO and 3YO in Ireland but was high in the handicap when he came to be trained in England last June. He will be a danger if tuned up for this. Peter Robinson has one ride one win on Kay Two who won both of his races at the end of 2006. Handsome Cross has not raced at Epsom but is just the type of horse to do well there. Adrian Nicholls gets him out of the stalls fast and he is capable of making all. The choice will be between Handsome Cross, Cape Royal and Bluebok.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 
11 am
I have gone off this race as a betting opportunity. The most likely winner is Cape Royal, but he has been known to break slowly and if he did that today his chance would be gone. If he ran as at Beverley he would be able to hold the rail and be in the lead after a furlong or two, making him hard to beat. Handsome Cross is a potential problem though. He can break very quickly and Adrian could have him out in front and conceivably against the rail within 1 1/2 furlongs cutting Cape Royal off at the pass. Likely he would squeeze a few up in the process. More likely the two of them will be upsides and if they go too fast setting it up for a “closer”. Bluebok, with a race behind him and Spencer aboard, should be closer to Cape Royal than at Beverley but I do not see him winning unless Cape Royal messes up. Jayanjay would be interesting if you could be sure he was in something like his early 2006 form. As it is he is one for the eternal optimists at 14/1 ish.

If Cape Royal was 4/1 or better I would be interested. He isn’t, so No Selection.

Post Mortem

It is probably fair to say that I got that one 50% right. Cape Royal nearly touched 4/1 on Betfair but my bet was not matched, so the inevitable happened Cape Royal just got up to win. I was completely wrong about the way the race would be run. Adrian failed to get Handsome Cross out particularly quickly and settled for tracking the leaders. Cape Royal was quickly passed by Bluebok and had to rely on a gap opening up on the rail. Classic Encounter and Kay Two led with Kay Two nearly hanging on. Moorhouse Lad also showed a bit more speed than I thought he had. Apart from all of that, much that was predicted occured, but no more than you could have gleaned from a quick read of the Racing Post.

Cape Royal can do a bit better still. It will not have escaped your notice that he was just about doing his best work at the finish. Despite the exceptional speed he sometimes shows, he goes well on stiff tracks and soft ground, which makes him a bit of an enigma as far as I am concerned. Moorhouse Lad did a lifetime best but looks anchored by the handicapper. Bluebok went nicely early but Spencer rode a minor stinker on him, letting stablemate Cape Royal by him, up the rail and choosing to get the horse covered up rather than letting him ‘flow’ which suits him so well. Bluebok was well backed and may be improving, which would not be unheard of for a Milton Bradley 6YO. I shall be looking out for him perhaps with a good 5 lb claimer aboard, someone who is going to take some weight off and just ‘point and go’. Kay Two looks likely to win soon, though no doubt he will be a relatively short price.

Results remain  - 4.00 pts - Appalachian Trail (4th), Cape Royal (2nd at Beverley), Paradise Isle (3rd), Geojimali (9th).

Saturday 28th April

Two sprints today. The Class 3 at Ripon is full of horses I know only a modicum about. Ebn Reem did not especially impress me at Kempton, but he looks a very nice horse and is still entered in the Temple Stakes, Group 2. The way he went to the front at Kempton without pulling clear may have been misleading? Anyway today he has the plumb draw in 1. You do not want to be drawn in the middle at Ripon, and anything higher than 6 is iffy on Good ground.

Post Mortem
Three performances to note. Northern Fling won very nicely despite his jockeys erratic steering. Dickie Le Davoir is said to be better on soft, yet ran well here and is said to have improved. I can believe that. Celtic Sultan ran a cracker from a bad draw, showing excellent midrace speed and kept on well.

At Leicester High Reach and Pieter Brueghel are interesting, but the Racing Post homed in on them and the prices aren’t generous. Back in 2004 High Reach was a major player in races like the Wokingham and Stewards Cup. David Barron could relight the fire and the Musselburgh run behind Geojimali was promising for at least matching last seasons ratings. High Reach is best in a strongly run 6f on fast ground, so conditions today will suit. Pieter Brueghel’s handicap mark has been massaged down by running at 5f on the All Weather. He is one of those front runners who does not have explosive speed and so 6f and the minimum of competition for the lead is ideal. I would just prefer Pieter Brueghel today. High Reach does not have a great win record. 4/1 Pieter B isn’t a great price though. No Selection.

Post Mortem
This race revolved around Hoh Hoh Hoh going a touch too fast, which did neither him nor Pieter Brueghel any favours. Danzig River showed again, as when he beat Blacky at Beverley, that he goes well for gentle female riders claiming 7lb. As at Beverley the field came back to him. High Reach managed only a weak effort and looks not to have revived for a change in stables.

I will not be betting today but next week the sprint season really gets going, with one of the early season highlights the 6f Heritage Handicap which follows the 2,000 Guineas, plus a Fillies Listed race at Bath and the Palace House Stakes. May is the time to be betting, though the normal edge which comes from the changes in the going from early season soft will not be there this year. Shame !


The Week Ahead (29th April)

Sun 29th    Blackheath - 3.15 Brighton
Mon 30th   3.30 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather 71-85 Handicap
           7.10 Windsor - 6f Class 4 66-80 Handicap
Tues 1st    4.40 Bath - 5f Class 1 Listed Fillies only
Wed 2nd    4.30 Ascot - 6f Listed 3YO only
Thurs 3rd   4.50 Catterick - 5f Class 4 71-85 Fillies Handicap
Fri 4th      Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
Sat 5th     Newmarket - 6f Class 2 0-110 Heritage Handicap
           Goodwood - 5f Class 3 76-90 Handicap
                      6f Class 4 71-85 Handicap
           Thirsk - 5f Class 4 66-80 Handicap
Sun 6th     Newmarket - Pinpoint - 9f Class 2 Heritage Handicap
                       5f Group 3 Palace House Stakes
           Salisbury - 6f Class 2 86-100 Handicap 3YO only

 

Monday 30th April

The 7.10 at Windsor looked an unappealing puzzle when I analysed it. It is usually best to leave a race alone unless a clear fancy appears from the ratings + conditions + draw. But I didn’t give up and again watched the video of the Folkestone race in which Forest Dane beat Lucayos and River Kirov. I had been impressed by the two that are now in todays race, Lucayos because he disputed the lead throughout yet battled on well to the end and River Kirov because of the way he travelled. Lucayos went up a pound for coming second. River Kirov was dropped a pound for finishing 4th. RK was the eye-catcher, racing keenly on his seasonal reappearance, soon tracking Lucayos travelling well, he looked the most likely winner approaching the final furlong, but ran out of puff. With that run behind him you could easily see him running two lengths better than that today, which could be good enough. Lucayos has an unhelpful wide draw while River Kirov has a nice high draw. The down side is River Kirov’s price. He is currently 7/2 favourite (with Crimson Silk and Night Prospector withdrawn). On ratings Methaaly looks to have a chance but the Nottingham run after a perfect lead down the stand rail was nothing special. River Kirov is suited by todays fast conditions, is lightly raced, has always been quite well regarded judging by how well he has been backed on several occasions, and may have more to come. Hopefully Windsor will not go mad with the watering.

Selection - River Kirov at 7/2 or better.

Post Mortem
Times suggest that the going in the straight was Good rather than Good/Firm.
Roman Maze was second in the 2005 Ayr Silver Cup off a handicap mark of 91 and had shown glimmers of form in 2006 over 7f and 8f. It was a fair bet that he would win another handicap sooner or later. The Silver Cup result flattered him but still he has lots of form that shows he can win off marks in the low 80s and he was off only 78 today. Still at 20/1 few thought the win would happen first time out in 2007. For Pinpoint blog readers the real irony was that it came at Windsor with Ted Durcan aboard. Oh, and he only beat River Kirov a short head. Credit to Roman Maze though, he had a difficult passage to the front and was hit over the head with a rivals whip once or twice in the process. River Kirov would have been suited by faster going. The front two and Linda Green were well in front of the others and they are probably all well in front of the handicapper too, at this moment.

Results -5.00 but we are not discouraged having hit the crossbar today. This is a season long project and only five bets into around 200+ which there are likely to be between now and October.
 

Tuesday 1st May

The 5 furlong Fillies Listed race at Bath tomorrow looks to have cut up badly in quality terms although 11 entries stand their ground at the moment. Sierra Vista has been withdrawn, presumably because of the firm ground, and the race will take little winning. Black type is supposedly a mark of excellence but it seems to be available for any shrewdly placed filly that is worthy of a 85-90 handicap mark in competitive races. It is early season so there will be some in the field well short of peak fitness.

Bath is relentlessly uphill for the final 3f and even a 5f sprinter needs to stay the distance really well. The pace is likely to be fast with Empress Jain and Sweet Afton drawn 1 and 2. So looking for a 5f/6f closer is the way to go. Current form and a guarantee to stay are the things to look for IMO. Of course Enticing may be a class above these. Optimistically she was allowed to take her chance in the Nunthorpe and finished where you would have expected, well behind in 13th of 14. If fully fit she should be in the shake-up but I think that her price will be shorter than her true chance warrants. Contrary to many peoples opinion a high draw at Bath is no disadvantage. In fact I like a high draw for chasers and hold up horses.

Post Mortem
Enticing did indeed turn out to be a class above the rest of the field. She was impressive. However, what with the very firm ground and probable lack of fitness of several of the field, it would be as well, for now, to take a cautious view of the distance Enticing put between herself and the opposition in the final furlong. She has a high class sprint pedigree and looked in tremendous shape. In the process of winning so easily she smashed the Bath 5f track record by more than a second. The following race was a 5f Class 5 3YO handicap won by a 69 rated horse from one rated 68, in 2.11 secs slower. Assuming the run of the winner of that is worth a rating of 72 and 1 second = 20 lbs you can calculate a BHB rating for Entice of 108, adjusted for weights and based on times only. Enticing was back on the bridle travelling well for a while before Spencer asked her to win the race, so could have won by a couple of lengths more? They went fast enough for her early.

Wednesday 2nd May

The 6f 3YO Listed race at Ascot will be interesting to watch and analyse, but for me it is not a race to spend much time on beforehand. Many will have followed these horses as 2YOs and know far more about them. Others will know if they are fit enough to do their best first time out, whether Hoh Mike had reasons for the poor runs at 6f etc.

Friday 4th May - 3.50 Musselburgh - 5f Conditions Stakes

1.15 pm In the second half of 2006 it looked as if age may have caught up with The Tatling. In the Scarborough Stakes, Dubai International (Group 3) and Rous Stakes conditions were sufficiently suitable to have expected a better run. So in his first outing of 2007 not much was expected. Nevertheless he ran well to be 3rd considering that Milton Bradleys runners are rarely fully fit first time out. The race was a bit stop/start for him that day as well. Today he probably has ideal conditions. Fast going (if the description is accurate), a track which encourages an end to end gallop, and two or three front runners. Terentia was a bit of a disappointment at Nottingham in that she looked a little tapped for speed. Perhaps she was a bit rusty. She showed plenty of speed in 2006. Dandy has four in the race which could mean a messy pace as he has the two most obvious front runners Fire Up The Band and Merlins Dancer, but Terentia even on Nottingham evidence should have enough speed to keep them honest from Stall 1. River Falcon is ideally suited by a bit of cut and may find conditions a little too quick. All things considered I think that giving The Tatling another chance is the way to go providing you can get 3/1 or better.

Selection - The Tatling at 3/1 plus.

Post Mortem

There is still life in the old fella and The Tatling won this with Darryl Holland showboating close home. He drifted from 5/2 to 7/2 on course and was then backed into 5/2 again. I do not know what he drifted out to on Betfair but there was plenty of 3/1 available. River Falcon looks capable of winning soon. He prefers ease in the ground and a stiffer 5f would help.

Results - 2.00
 

Saturday 5th May - 4.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Hertitage Handicap

30 runners over 6f at Newmarket. Marvellous. It looks ferociously difficult, which is good. I have to admit I have not found the winner of this one since 1999, though I had several wins and places in the 1990s. Recent selections have been very wide of the mark.
There used to be a rails draw advantage, probably due to soil compaction, the best strategy being to select from those near the rail on the side with the best pace. Nowadays the track is split and tomorrow they are using the Stand Side Course.
With several reliable front runners spread fairly evenly across the course there is no point in discussing a draw advantage before the 2,000 Guineas, and probably not afterwards. It is assumed that the pace will be hot and that it will be better to track or chase the pace than to set it. Wind conditions can have an important influence on results on the Rowley Mile but the forecast is for very light winds tomorrow.
The ones that I think are most suited by the conditions AND are at, or close to, the top of my ratings are -
Mutamared, Wyatt Earp, Compton’s Eleven (now a regular at 7f), Ice Planet (2nd last year but prob better for the run), Fullandby (improving but I think best on give), Indian Trail, Idle Power, Beaver Patrol, Hoh Hoh Hoh and Firenze (very best with cut). If the 1 stall and front running is favoured then Hoh Hoh Hoh could spring a surprise. Otherwise I like Mutamared best. He won this last year off 92. Then went close in the Stewards Cup off 96 having not had the clearest of runs. He later won off the current mark of 98 at Kempton beating Intrepid Jack and Viking Spirit. Last time he was 5th to Asset over course and distance in the Abernant, having travelled nicely for 4 1/2 furlongs. I do like the fact that he won this race last year. He has a progressive profile and goes particularly well in big fields. Indian Trail won it in 2005, breaking the course record which stood until Asset smashed it the other day. At 6/1 Firenze does not look close to being a value bet to me.
Mutamared is 14/1 with William Hill overnight.

10 am Unfortunately Firenze has been withdrawn because the ground is judged to be too quick for her. It is always annoying when a false favourite gets withdrawn and the prices contract. Mutamared is now at 11/1, still OK imo. I took the 14/1 with William Hill and will suffer a 15% Rule 4 should he win. Last night I went through Fullandby’s record looking for any evidence that he may act on Good/Firm ground. It is one thing to run well on Good/Firm (Good) at Beverley’s uphill track and another thing entirely going flat out into the Rowley Mile dip on fast ground. My conclusion was that Fullandby improves on easy ground and goes particularly well on soft. On fast ground, a forgiving track and on a seasonal debut he may get away with it, but he is not worth taking the chance today. We will keep an eye on him for the future. Wyatt Earp is the other Pricewise horse and I dealt with his run at Beverley in the post mortem. I expect him to run well and if Mutamared was not in the field I would have gone with either Wyatt Earp or Comptons Eleven, at the prices.

Selection - Mutamared at 11/1 or better.


Post Mortem

This race will take quite a few run-throughs of the video to fully appreciate. There was apparently little or no draw advantage. The selection looked like he might win but Beaver Patrol with Mick Kinane aboard ran on too strongly for him. In the pre-parade ring the following horses impressed me, relative to their current handicap marks - Indian Trail, Burning Incense (not fully fit yet), Fullandby, Fictional, Beaver Patrol (still something to work on) and Hoh Hoh Hoh (v.well) - but there was not a huge difference between the best and the average. Coleorton Dancer (needs give) and Secret Night were the least impressive. Wyatt Earp and Woodcote will be fitter next time. Fantasy Believer is still some way off, as usual for him in Spring. The betting move for Burning Incense was inexplicable to me bearing in mind his apparent lack of full fitness, centre draw and liking for cut. He is a horse we are likely to hear a lot more about as the season progresses.
Hoh Hoh Hoh is an interesting horse. In the April 2006 Weekender Stable Tour, Andrew Balding said this -
“We were thinking about Royal Ascot after he won his 2YO maiden by 7 lengths at Bath, but then he had a nasty knee injury. Following treatment, it finally came good last season and he ran well to be second in a conditions event at Leicester, despite not being fully tuned-up. The ground was too soft for him on his only run since - he really does need it quick. Given the right ground, I’m sure he’s up to Group class. He’s the fastest horse I’ve trained, bar none, and we may start him off in the Palace House Stakes.”
Well a year later this opinion is looking off the mark, but if Hoh Hoh Hoh gets in the lead over a stiff 5f, say, he will be a very difficult horse to catch. He led this field a merry dance until tiring in the final furlong again.

Results - 3.00

Saturday 5th May - 2.30 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 76-90 Handicap

Referring back to the Post Mortem on Epsom 25th April, Bluebok now turns up at Goodwood with hopefully the scenario that I suggested. A 5 lb claiming apprentice who will point-and-go. There is lots of pace in the race. Classic Encounter and Peopleton Brook are the most likely front runners, though Mornin Reserves was extremely fast in his younger days, and Magic Glade and Fromsong can also front run. Stall 10 for Bluebok is no disadvantage. If the ground is v.fast and Matsunosuke is fit he could be a threat. Peopleton Brook won this last year but will surely need his first run of the season? So too Holbeck Ghyll? Alan Ball was a prominent member of the syndicate which owns Pic Up Sticks. Sentimental motivation to pull out all the stops can result in wins, so don’t write him off.
There are a few dangers so I would not take a short price about Bluebok, but 9/2 would be OK.

10am  Well 9/2 Bluebok is looking a little unlikely. He is a solid 7/2 at present with the Bookies. But you never know as there are a few potential dangers and the market may head off in their direction? So.......

Selection - Bluebok, but only at 9/2 or better.


Post Mortem

Bluebok opened at 4/1 and was backed into 100/30 favourite. He never reached 9/2 so no bet. He only ran to a similar level to the Epsom run but that would have been good enough without Classic Encounter’s improvement. The winner fractured his tibia as a 2YO, is relatively lightly raced for a 4YO and should progress. However the trainer is talking of aiming for the Vodaphone Dash. Hopefully he will think better of it, take things a step at a time, and not mess up by getting too ambitious too soon. Some horses need protection from their connections !
Of course Holbeck Ghyll is the horse to follow out of this race. Racing close to the stand rail was kiss of death all afternoon, as it often is at Goodwood these days, but HG ran on after a slow start, staying closer to the rail than was good for him. His run was sufficiently eye catching to ensure a short price next time. His owners include Angus Loughran and he is usually well backed.

Results - 3.00 (still)

Sunday 6th May - 3.45 Newmarket - Palace House Stakes 5f Group 3

It is difficult to get away from Tax Free and he seems certain to start at around 2/1 or less. He finished 3rd in this race last year, but this years renewal is not as strong. The Newmarket 5f is sharp enough for Tax Free, but what is going to beat him? Biniou has his first run since coming 4th in the Prix L’Abbaye and it will be interesting to follow his progress, but expecting a top performance first time in England on fast ground is expecting too much. Paradise Isle and Presto Shinko are almost certain to find this too sharp. Celtic Mill will have trouble dominating. Bond City and Peace Offering have tough tasks and the others are not good enough.

No Selection.

Monday 7th May

10am No analysis yet so no selections. The 4.50 at Windsor is a possible if I can knuckle down to work on it and forget Pinny’s race at Newmarket for a while.

The Week Ahead (6th May)

Mon 7th    2.30 Kempton - 5f Class 4 71-85 All Weather 3YO
           4.30 Kempton  - 6f Class 4 71-85 All Weather Fillies
           4.50 Windsor - 6f Class 4 71-85
Tues 8th    Blank
Wed 9th     2.30 Beverley - 5f Class 4 71-85
           4.10 Beverley - 5f Class 4 71-85 3YO
Thurs 10th  2.20 Chester - 5f Class 2 86-100
           4.00 Chester - 6f Class 3 76-90 3YO
           2.40 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 66-80
Fri 11th    1.50 Chester - 5f Class 2 81-100 3YO
           3.10 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 71-85
           6.50 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO
Sat 12th    2.55 Nottingham - 6f Class 3 81-95 3YO
           3.30 Nottingham - 6f Class 1 Listed Fillies
           3.35 Ascot - 6f Class 3 81-95
           3.40 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
           4.15 Haydock - 6f Class 4 71-85 3YO
           4.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 66-80 3YO
Sun 13th    Blank
 

Wednesday 9th May - 2.30 Beverley 5f Class 4 Handicap

9pm Tuesday
There will be a selection tomorrow morning.

9.25am
The selection is Bo McGinty at 9/2 or better. 9/2 is currently available with Betfred but will not last long.

I was hoping for 6/1 or better, but the Racing Post put him in at 5/1 on their betting forecast and some twitchy punters on Betfair did further damage to the price. Even though he is basically a 6f horse Bo McGinty did run two very good races over the ultra stiff Beverley 5f last year, winning one off a mark of 79 and beaten 1 1/2 lengths for this jockey off 85. His mark has steadily dropped thanks to racing on slower ground, trips that are too sharp and no blinkers. He is on 73 now. After two warm up runs the blinkers are back on today. Also he has the plumb 15 draw against the far rail. A sprinter can go seasons without getting circumstances this favourable. Hopefully little or no rain will fall on Beverley by 2.30pm.


Post Mortem

This one deserves an autopsy. Somehow Tony Hamilton, Wanchai Lad and the judge have managed to turn a cosy win into the closest short head defeat in racing history. A length up inside the final 50 yds and not stopping, Hamilton put his whip down happy just to push out for a comfortable win. Bo McGinty took the hint and slowed up and that was that. The slowmo still looked promising, the photo finish does not look that bad, but the judge, bless him, has managed to split pixels. twist the finish line and find in Wanchai Lad’s favour. That’s racing. Move on.

Results - 4.00
 

Thursday 10th May - 2.20 Chester - Class 2 Handicap

At Chester the low draw advantage is huge in 5f handicaps on a sound surface (over 1 lb per stall). In the average race there are just three or four potential winning positions - Leading on the rail, tracking the leader on the rail, chasing mid div close to the rail. Occasionally one runner from a high stall starts so quickly that they can get across in front of the rest straight away. Handsome Cross did this from stall 8 in 2005, but it does not happen very often. People back horses from middle or high stalls on the basis that they are fast starters or natural front runners, and imagine that they can get to the front and stay there. The problem is that the average Chester sprint has several front runners and you will see the high drawn ones fighting for the lead three or four horses wide using much more energy than the rail runners. They usually start to weaken by the home turn. Some horses are good enough to win racing one off the rail but the further from the rail the harder it is.

A substantial amount of rain fell at Chester yesterday, and if the ground went Good/Soft or Soft then the draw advantage would be reduced. It is also harder for a front runner to dominate when a ‘false rail’ is in use spreading the runners out as they enter the straight. There will be a false rail tomorrow. Both the rain and false rail reduce the predictability of the race.

However all things considered there are just two horses which have the form and the draw to be of interest on what we know about the conditions now. Mr Wolf (drawn 1) and Kay Two (drawn 4). The other front runners - Corridor Creeper, Turn On The Style, The Lord, Cape Royal and Handsome Cross - will surely get in each others way and not get close enough to the rail? Guto (5) or Bigalo’s Bandit (3) could get into the rail tracking or mid div positions giving them some sort of chance. Hold up / outpaced horses like Dhaular Dhar and Mine Behind need a lot of luck.

From stall 1 I think that Mr Wolf has the speed to hold the rail position front rank, gradually see off the challengers and hold on using the stamina that saw him home 2nd behind Kostar over 6f at Pontefract. Chester should suit him too. He ran well on soft ground in the Great St Wilfred last year, though a soft ground slog might reduce his chance.

Selection - Mr Wolf at 9/2 (Ladbokes, William Hill, Bet365 etc)

1.45pm Update  Handsome Cross has been withdrawn which is in Mr Wolf’s favour, but has led to a Rule 4 or shorter price. Only 6mm of rain fell yesterday and the times were very quick. Whatever the Clerk of the Course says the ground should be on the fast side of Good today. Having again watched the video of Mr Wolf leading the Listed Scarborough Stakes over 5f at York last September I think there is a good chance of him making all today. With Daryll Holland aboard he should not go too fast and there is no better front running jockey. At York from a bad draw he led clear of fast horses like Strike Up The Band, Fire Up The Band and Celtic Mill. That should be good enough to lead today.

Recommended an extra point at 4/1 Mr Wolf.

Post Mortem

Mr Wolf was backed down to 5/2 fav, but his chance went in the first two furlongs. My heart sank when I heard that Adrian had switched to Bigaloos Bandit (drawn 3) which meant a break-neck early pace and fight for the rail. With Adrian it is all or nothing at Chester. Mr Wolf held him off for a while but with BB and Turn On The Style going mad the winner was going to come from the back. Caribbean Coral (16/1) goes best chasing a very fast pace (eg win in Vodaphone Dash), prefers fast ground and Graham Gibbons is a massively underrated jockey. Hindsight is wonderful.
For the rest of the meeting it will be best for horses to race away from the rail in the straight. The rain fell on opened up ground and the fresh ground will be quicker.

Results -6.00
 

Friday 11th May - 2.40 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 Handicap

It will keep raining most of the night so the going at Lingfield is hard to predict. Peopleton Brook won the race last year, has a nice high draw, and with the run at Goodwood behind him will probably run well on a sound surface. Unfortunately the Racing Post think so too. Good recent form is thin on the ground. If the going comes up Soft it may be worth going through the race again to find one particularly suited by the conditions? At present No Selection.

There is now a Table of Cumulative Results available.

Saturday 12th May - 3.35 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap

This is an interesting race for sprint addicts. A race packed with hold-up horses and chasers. There are only a few horses in the race which usually or occasionally front-run - Pearly Way, Mujood, Loyal Royal and Idle Power are possibles - but for a 25 runner sprint there is unlikely to be a strong early pace. If the jockeys of those horses have their wits about them they will try to lead at a moderate gallop to halfway, and only wind it up from there. So although I very much like the medium term prospects of Zidane and Geojimali I see them and other hold up horses as being at a disadvantage in this race. Of course it will only take one to go off really quickly to ruin this idea.

In particular there is not a single horse in stalls 1-10 who is likely to want to force the pace or even be prominent. It is quite possible that this part of the draw will take too long sorting themselves out to get into the race at all. The key here is Pearly Wey (stall 11) who could solve their problem by heading to the stand rail and giving them all a tow. Hopefully this will not happen.

Selection tomorrow morning.

11.30 am
I have thought long and hard about this race. Probably to no useful purpose. Those in stalls 6,7 and 8 have been withdrawn leaving a field of 22. A high draw is looking a little less attractive as it will take them longer to get to the far rail and organised, if they go there at all. The way that the Victoria Cup (2.20) is run will have an influence on this race. The ground is also supposed to have eased from Good to Good/Soft, though the Ascot straight drains so well now that it is unlikely to suit mudlarks. The best idea seems to be to wait for the Victoria Cup with an open mind ;-) and then make a decision.

So they came down the middle and stand side in the Victoria Cup - The first four in Stalls 14, 3, 27 and 28.
It looks like the issue in the 3.35 will be getting home (in the ground) rather than pace. There are not many soft ground horses in the line-up. Bahamian Pirate, Kenmore and King’s Gate the only ones you would pick out, though there are a few more that handle give perfectly well. Geojimali is one of those.

Selection - Geojimali at 11/1 (Totesport)

Post Mortem

Just awful. Two to pick from and I chose the wrong one.

Zidane had threatened to do something like that for some time and the soft ground and strong pace, for the conditions, brought out the best in him. He has to go up 10 lbs or more in the handicap for that, but in similar conditions a 10 lb hike would not necessarily stop him. Geojimali was a disappointment for no obvious reason. He was always towards the rear and made limited and laboured progress only. All I can think of is that this was his first race down South and maybe the journey or overnight stop had a bearing? This is just clutching at straws for an explanation though. For now you could not back him again. There was nothing particularly interesting behind Zidane. Come Out Fighting may have improved, as his was a very good seasonal debut carrying top weight in slowish ground. Bahamian Pirate and King’s Gait showed their liking for soft ground as you would expect, and Trafalgar Bay stayed on strongly giving a hint to his new connections that he should do well at 7f also.

Results - 7.00

Saturday 12th May - 3.40 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes

Several high class sprinters who require particular conditions to bring out their best. Borderlescott and Fonthill Road are having their seasonal debuts but most of the others have run already, which must give them something of an advantage. Borderlescott will have to be at, or close to, last seasons best first time out which is by no means a given, yet he is a short priced favourite with Betfair in the early exchanges. I think that there is value in opposing him. Selection tomorrow.

The rain will help Patavellian, as will the 6f compared with his last run. My ratings have him close to Borderlescott, and I haven’t seen anything that suggests to me that he has deteriorated since 2004/5. Of course there is limited evidence either way. I tend to believe that horses retain their ability until I see clear evidence to the contrary. The betting public is usually much more fickle.

So bearing in mind Borderlescott’s lack of a run, I would have Patavellian and he about 3/1 joint favourites. But Patavellian is available at 9/2 or more, and Borderlescott is 6/4.

Selection - Patavellian at 9/2 (Betfred, SportingOdds and Paddy Power)

Post Mortem

Well I was wrong about Patavellian. He had close to ideal conditions and seems to have deteriorated a few pounds. He could never quite muster the speed needed, though only beaten 1 1/2 lengths. A market drifter too > 7/1.

Sierra Vista proved what a useful filly she has developed into, yet again, always hard to pass on easy ground. My ratings show Fonthill Road running a lifetime best, which is very promising considering this was his seasonal debut, and a small field Conditions Stakes with an ordinary early pace would not have been ideal. Borderlescott was keen early but ran only a few pounds off his best. There is more to come. Prince Woodman was only beaten just over two lengths, back on the track after winning his only other race 568 days before. He pulled hard early as well. A star in the making?

Results - 8.00

Saturday 12th May - 3.30 Nottingham - 6f Listed Fillies only

A race full of black type chasers who are miles off proper Listed class. Why does the racing and breeding industry stay with this blacktype farce when there is a much better means of expressing merit through ratings? Black type should be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Firenze stands out in this field even with a penalty. She can be caught flat footed if the race is run at a modest pace though there are two natural pacemakers here, Angus Newz and Blue Echo. There are three more withdrawals leaving a field of 11. Last year Shane Kelly on Angus Newz put the rest of the field to sleep, slipped across towards the far rail and set sail for home giving Indian Maiden too much to do to catch her. No doubt Richard Mullen will try to do the same thing again, though it will be harder this time with a penalty and competition for the lead.

Firenze is the one, but because of the seasonal debut and short price it is not a bet.

Post Mortem

To my complete amazement Firenze drifted on-course from 7/4 right out to 4/1. On Betfair she was briefly even longer odds. Well I had to have some of that ! These unexpected things happen from time to time and from now on I will include Selections whether they are likely to reach satisfactory odds or not.

In truth this sort of race was not ideal for Firenze, but she was two classes better than anything else in the race. Perfect Story is progressing well, but they have probably messed up her handicap mark now. Blue Echo also impressed with her speed. She went a little too fast for the conditions, but back at 5f she would be interesting.

 

One or two other things of note over the weekend.

Aahayson was impressive at Hamilton, on Friday evening. Northern Fling had won nicely at Ripon, but Aahayson put him firmly in his place and beat a couple of other useful ones, out of sight.
Rowe Park (Lingfield Friday) continued to progress winning going away.
Sandrey (Lingfield Saturday) was a class above the others and could have won by at least another two lengths.

The Week Ahead (13th May).

Sun 13th   - 5f Group 3 at Longchamp
Mon 14th   - Blackheath at Wolverhampton
Tues 15th   - 4.30 Southwell - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Wed 16th   - 3.15 York - 6f Group 2 - Duke of York Stakes
Thurs 17th  - 1.45 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Fri 18th     - 3.50 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
           - 4.25 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
           - 2.25 Newbury - 6f Listed 3YO only
           - 3.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
           - 5.25 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
           - 7.00 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 19th    - Newbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap
           - Thirsk - 5f Class 2 Handicap
           - Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Handicap
           - Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 20th   - Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap Fillies only
 

Wednesday 16th May - 3.15 York - 6f Group 2 Duke of York Stakes

An interesting and apparently very open race. The going is supposedly Good (Good/Soft in places) at York, but I have my suspicions that it may actually be softer than that, based on the going stick readings that have been forthcoming and the weather they have had the past few days, Amadeus Wolf looks like being favourite but there has been some early money for Soldier’s Tale 15/2>11/2 Stan James, 7/1>5/1 Paddy Power, 7/1>6/1 Ladbrokes. As he has been off the track for 678 days I would not back him with your money, but someone seems keen !

It may be best to wait until the first two races have been run to see, from the times, what the going actually is.

Update 9.45 am

The weather forecast suggests that the rain will reach York by early afternoon, but not enough, or early enough, to make much difference to the going. In all the circumstances it looks like Al Qasi will not get his ideal Soft conditions. In which case Amadeus Wolf looks a solid favourite, at value odds because of the market interest in Al Qasi and Soldier’s Tale. Amadeus Wolf’s form stands up very well to scrutiny. 5th in the 2000 Guineas first time out, he was switched back to sprinting performing very consistently in Group Ones through the season, just a length or two below the best. He escapes a penalty and whatever way you look at the race he is best on form.

I like a low/middle draw at York, so drawn in 4 is fine, and probably about the best place because Welsh Emperor (9) and Red Clubs (1) will surely force the pace. Amadeus Wolf usually races close to the pace so should get a good position. He goes well on Good or Soft, so there is no worry about the ground.

The biggest of several dangers imo are Al Qasi and Steenberg (won this in 2006 + second in 2004 and 2005).

Selection - Amadeus Wolf. The 11/2 with Victor Chandler has just gone. 5/1 generally.

Post Mortem

Several of these ran to the ratings I have, without showing anything special. If Amadeus Wolf was idling in front or short of peak fitness then perhaps he can improve, but on the bare result he showed nothing more than in several races last year and is unlikely to win a Group 1. Red Clubs comes out slightly the better horse at the weights. Rising Shadow and Fonthill Road also ran to their ratings, and Assertive and Al Qasi were not far off. If he gets on very soft ground and a stiff track Rising Shadow is worth backing to improve further. Al Qasi may also need softer ground to show his best. They were always going a little too quickly for him.
Soldier’s Tale is perhaps the most interesting of all. To produce form of this level and his trademark finish after two years off the track was quite something. If he stands training he must surely progress in front of the rest of this field and be a real contender in Group Ones. Conditions were too quick for Steenberg.

Results - 3.00

Thursday 17th May - 1.45 York - 5f Class Handicap

The going at York on Wednesday was Good. The Group 2 sprint was run under standard time but that would have been due to a breeze down the straight and the high calibre of the contest. Other races were run in typical Good going time. There will be further rain overnight and it is assumed that the going tomorrow will be Good/Soft, but no worse.

This race does not look especially competitive. Several of the runners will find it a sharp test - Hogmaneigh, Knot In Wood and Pacific Pride who all coincidently are having their seasonal debut. Prince Namid is out of the handicap and will find it sharp. Guto has blinkers for the first time. Connect is out of the handicap and looks to be marking time until his handicap rating comes down. Northern Empire looks out of his depth. Terentia and Masta Plasta do not seem to be in much form. Tournedos could do with a faster surface. Fire Up The Band was best fresh two runs ago, but is reunited with Silvestre. Kay Two looks to have a tough draw, though the rain on opened ground could change the draw bias. This leaves just four to concentrate on.

Update 10.30 am

4 mm overnight which will not have made a big difference.
Kay Two is favourite and superficially appears to have the record of a soft ground horse. He does go well on soft but has several pieces of form of a similar level on fast or good ground. His position at the head of the market is presumably based on a belief that he will improve today because of the softer ground. If he does he will have every chance, but I do not like his draw in 16 and think that there is better value elsewhere at the prices.
Cape Royal is 3 lb higher than his highest ever winning rating. He can really fly on soft ground, as he did at Haydock last September, but he hasn’t looked at his very best even when winning at Epsom three weeks ago. He has a poor draw also.
Bigalo’s Bandit has a better chance than his odds suggest. At Chester he was well backed and kept on better than he had any right to, considering the pace he went. I expect him to be ridden more conservatively by Joe Fanning and could cut the leaders down late.
Green Park is a horse that goes well in the Spring on easy ground. He had been too high in the handicap but is down to a reasonable mark now. He looks to have a good draw in 6. Frankie rides, which in handicap sprints is not necessarily a good thing, brilliant as he is most of the time. As far as I can tell Frankie has never ridden for Richard Fahey and I am not a fan of ‘out of the blue’ jockey bookings. Nevertheless Green Park impressed me when he finished third to Pivotals Princess from a poor draw (8 of 18) at Beverley. You can draw a line through his last run at Newmarket, as 6f on fast ground is not his thing at all. He is marginally top of my ratings with everything apparently in his favour. 12/1 available at Coral.
Corridor Creeper ran a cracker to be second at Chester. Drawn 7 of 13 he had an OK passage through the race one or two off the rail and looked the likely winner challenging on the outside, until Caribbean Coral appeared and cut him down. With the comparative draw and positions in the race you would have to say that Creeper came out of the race with more credit than Kay Two who was 3rd. Creeper is due to go up 4 lb for that so today has to be the day. Conditions are fine for him and he has a good centre draw. The 7lb claimer - 2 wins from 113 rides - is a worry but he did nothing wrong at Chester. Creeper has been available at 8/1+ on Betfair and 7/1 generally with the Bookies.

It is a close call and I have also backed Corridor Creeper but the Selection is - Green Park 12/1 Coral.

Post Mortem

Terentia came back to form with a vengeance, over the same track and going that saw her best performance of 2006. The excellent Buachaill Dona / Terentia / Fantasy Explorer form had started to look a little iffy, but the rating for this race is similar for Terentia, dispelling doubts. Everyone will have noted Hogmaneigh going easily, apparently unable to get a clear run, switched and staying on strongly, just too late to challenge. He was a heavily backed favourite for the Ayr Gold Cup last year and many will be on his case when he next runs. A stiff 5f, like Beverley or Sandown, or more likely 6f is required. My ratings suggest that Hogmaneigh has improved again if you assume that he would have gone close with a clear run. He was not getting closer in the last few yards. Prince Namid and Knot In Wood were staying on strongly as befits horses who are best at 6f, running in a 5f race. The TV pundits seem to see great promise in this, whereas what is happening is that the fast front runners are coming back to the stamina horses, who do not get into it until the race is all but over. The high draw disadvantage was there for all to see in this race, with the low drawn horses noticeably quicker early and soon completely on top, much to the bemusement of the RUK presenters Angus McNae and Graham Cunningham, who were sweet on Kay Two and told us that all of the pace was drawn high. No doubt Kay Two will run well next time given suitable conditions and the pundits will slag him off beforehand casting doubt on his ability and consistency. Racereading requires detachment from your own judgements and bets. Green Park ran OK never quite having the speed to get to the leaders, and perhaps that is the pattern of his races requiring soft ground, stiff tracks or the leaders to coming back to him, but not staying 6f. Corridor Creeper ran a cracker but was unlucky to find one better on the day and now with a 4 lb rise is going to find it difficult.

Results - 4.00
 

Friday 18th May - 4.25 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap

The going is just on the slow side of Good, and the York bias against horses drawn near the stand rail is having its normal effect. Whilst there are only 13 runners in the 4.25 I would not be keen on backing Wyatt Earp, from stall 13.
Several of this field would be happier on genuinely soft ground. Turnkey, Zomerlust, King’s Gait and Commando Scott go well on very soft and some might find the 6f at York a little too quick as well. Commando Scott is best from the front but probably won’t have the speed to get there in this race. Indian Trail has not shown much for a long while despite plenty of market support. Mezuzah seems to have been put in the wrong race. No doubt Mick Easterby has his reasons. ;-)

Hoh Hoh Hoh is the most likely front runner. Beckermet used to front run very successfully but he seems to be ridden a different way every time I see him these days. Down to a realistic handicap mark, at last, he was a close 2nd to Dhaular Dhar at Chester last week. Royal Challenge’s handicap mark is beginning to come down after being badly drawn twice over 5f at Beverley. A trip on the sharp side anyway. Desert Commander runs more bad races than good, see 18th April Beverley comments. It is hard to know whether Buachaill Dona will be tuned up for this. Dandy’s handicappers usually need two or three runs. Although this one will probably end up in Listed and Group races tomorrows race is more likely to be a sighter for Buachaill Dona.

Again like the 5f sprint today, this 6f race is short both on good recent form and horses well suited by the conditions. Somethings got to win though and no doubt it will be informative for the future. Selection tomorrow.

10 am
Hoh Hoh Hoh is the Selection.
The Racing Post forecast of 8/1 was available in early exchanges on Betfair, but the horse has been well backed and now 6/1 is the best you will do (Ladbrokes, Coral, Stan James etc). As a low drawn front runner Hoh Hoh Hoh has things going for him at York. To some extent his chances depend on whether he is taken on for the lead, but the speed he showed at Leicester and Newmarket should at least make it difficult for the others. His best run of 2006 was on easy ground at Salisbury. I am very hopeful of him.

Post Mortem

Hoh Hoh Hoh was very popular in the market before the race (7/1 early -> 7/2 fav) but not at all popular after it. :-(
Well these are sprints and nobody said it would be easy. The draw advantage seemed to switch completely around, probably due to the wear down the middle/standside of the track, and the final two sprints were won down the stand rail first by the very quick Morinqua and then by Wyatt Earp, whose bad draw turned into a good draw? If Hoh Hoh Hoh had kept straight from the stall he would probably have found quicker ground, but this is the third time running that he has led but not seen the final furlong out. He stayed 6f at Salisbury in 2006, but here he went off fast, pressed by King’s Gait, and the placed horses were 6/7f types who were held up off the pace. Buachaill Dona ran a promising race for 5f.

Results - 5.00
 

Saturday 19th May - 3.50 Newbury - 6f  Class 2 Handicap

I whittled this one down to Intrepid Jack, Come Out Fighting, Swinbrook, Zowington and Ripples Maid. There is not a lot of pace in the race. Greenslades usually tries to front run but isn’t the quickest, is best on give and this is his seasonal debut. The booking of Mick Kinane on Come Out Fighting is interesting. A draw near the stand rail is preferred to the draws of Intrepid Jack and Zowington. Ripples Maid has the tactical speed to take advantage of a modest pace and Jamie Spencer replaces Richard Thomas, who has ridden her in every one of her races to date. She tackles this one in preference to a much easier Fillies handicap at Ripon tomorrow.

Selection - Ripples Maid

Post Mortem

Ripples Maid won this nicely down the stand rail, given a perfect lead by Greenslades who helpfully went a good even gallop taking the lead after a couple of furlongs and leaving the rail free for her. Races don’t always work out that nicely. One should be wary that she is quite as good as she appeared here. Plenty of these were having their seasonal debuts and there were not many with good recent form before the race. Intrepid Jack has gone well first time out in the past and did so again, probably disadvantaged racing on the outside, picking up nicely and looking a danger for a while. There should be more to come, particularly on fast ground and he is being aimed at the Wokingham. Out After Dark did best of those forcing the pace. Gloved Hand raced close to the stand rail, which may have been a significant advantage.

Ripples Maid was available early prices at 6/1, which was the price I took, and opened 6/1 on track. However she was returned at 11/2, and as I did not specify a price I will assume 11/2 for the profits/loss bottom line.

Results + 0.50

With 45 sprinters entered in three races at Thirsk on Saturday I was drawn to visit North Yorkshire, staying over for racing at Ripon on Sunday. Hence the very limited analysis posted on Saturday morning. At Thirsk the conditions favoured speed, with the ground drying up to Good, and a strongish wind behind. IMHO the paddock pick of the horses running in those three races were : -
4.15 Bahamian Pirate (looked by someway the most powerful and on very good terms with himself, but not favoured by the fast conditions or draw), My Gacho (will be fitter still next time) and Pieter Brueghel. I also liked Blue Tomato and Lake Chini.
4.50 - Magic Glade impressed in terms of size and muscle, and Harry Up was in super shape considering his three month break. Moorhouse Lad and Oranmore Castle were very fit and perhaps there is not much left to work on?
5.20 - Spanish Ace stood out and Holbeck Ghyll is a better type than his current handicap mark.

On Sunday at Ripon it was interesting looking at the runners in the first three races all for 2YOs. The runners in the Maidens were clearly much better types than those in the Seller. Several of them took the eye. Nickel Silver is a strong well built sprint type who really impressed me. Toto Skyllachy disgraced himself by staying in the stalls and he probably wasn’t fit enough anyway, but he is a really powerful one, and I liked Bollin Guil too. Rubirosa managed to win despite spending much of his time in the pre-parade ring and paddock showing off more than his racing credentials.

In the 4.10 I strongly fancied Angus Newz to make all down the favoured stand rail from stall 1, and her forecast price in the Racing Post of 10/1 looked too good to be true. I did not expect to get 10/1 but had hopes of say 6/1. So to get to the track and find 9/2 was a bit disappointing. Although she has won in other circumstances she is a filly to back when able to dominate, and at Ripon the draw, lack of other front runners, ease in the ground and 6f were close to ideal.

Saturday 19th May - 4.15 Thirsk - 6f  Class 3 Handicap

The going is just on the easy side of Good. The best place to be on Good or faster ground at Thirsk is usually against the stand rail, an enduring draw advantage though nothing like the huge bias of the 1980s and 90s when an occasional fortune was made from tricasts based on the three highest draws.

Of these only Bahamian Pirate and Danzig River have hit form so far. The best pace is probably in the low numbers (My Gacho, Commando Scott and High Curragh) but Peter Brueghel will try to make all from stall 9, Lake Chini will probably press the pace and Steel Blue (stall 16) is a front runner when he gets the chance. Nothing stands out on ratings and I do not really fancy the two we know for sure are in form. The market may struggle to find a favourite.

Steel Blue ran a fair seasonal debut at Beverley from a poor draw, with a weak jockey and 3 lb out of the handicap. Ideally it would be softer for him and with less competition for the lead, but the competition is drawn wide and I think that there is a chance he could make all from stall 16. His forecast price in the Racing Post is 12/1. You may not get that but 10/1 will be acceptable.

Selection - Steel Blue

Post Mortem

Steel Blue ran a good race, only beaten a head and two short heads. He opened at 7/1 on course and was backed into 11/2. My bets on Betfair of around 10/1 were not matched but for the purposes of this Blog I will assume that he was a value bet at some point and should be included in the results. He would have been better served by softer ground and less competition for the lead, though he had the luck of a clear run along the rail. Bahamian Pirate should be followed on soft ground and a stiffer track. He did well to make up ground on the outside and to go close in conditions which were not in his favour. High Curragh was a big eyecatcher stuck in behind the front rank with no way through, apparently full of running. He was third in the William Hill Sprint Trophy off 85 last year, after which his results were rather disappointing. Clearly the ability is still all there. Blue Tomato is another one to watch out for, on faster ground.

Results - 0.50

Saturday 19th May - 4.45 Thirsk - 5f  Class 2 Handicap

Dig Deep was impressive last time but there is a question mark against him under these conditions and he has the worst of the draw on the outside. Oranmore Castle comes out well on my ratings, though not on the Racing Post or Timeform ratings, and he won over course and distance last time. 5f here is a little on the sharp side for him but Adrian rode him very positively last time and today he may be able to track a very fast pace up the stand rail? Harry Up, Magic Glade, Cape Royal, Moorhouse Lad and The Lord will make sure there is no hanging around. It is Oranmore Castle for me at around 6/1?.

Selection - Oranmore Castle

Post Mortem

Why Adrian tried to make all on Oranmore Castle, in a race packed with classy front runners I do not know. Needless to say the effort required to get front rank, particularly as he half reared out of the stalls, and to stay there, had him knackered well before the business end.
The result is probably not one to dwell on for very long. Green Park and The Lord ran well in conditions which were not in their favour. Green Park reunited with Paul Hanaghan. The Lord looked like he would need the race beforehand. He is getting well handicapped should his favoured soft ground come along. Dig Deep was a ridiculously short priced favourite bearing in mind the very different conditions he faced in this race.

Results - 1.50

Saturday 19th May - 5.20 Thirsk - 5f  Class 4 Handicap

Aegean Dancer, Hypnosis and Holbeck Ghyll are the ones to concentrate on, but they are at the head of the market and I have no definite preference between them at this stage. A sound surface may be important to Holbeck Ghyll. Aegean Dancer is a Piccolo who has not raced on easy ground.

Post Mortem

With the first four home going off at odds of 33/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 40/1 I’m relieved that I did not have time to analyse this race in detail. The early pace on the far side looked stronger than that on the stand side, setting it up for a far side winner. Holbeck Ghyll was prominent throughout on the stand rail, which I am sure would not have been the plan. Whilst he finished an OK 7th, as far as he is concerned you can draw a line through the race. He is best held up on fast ground. Continent went well for Silvestre, and may be of interest over a stiff 5f or preferably 6f with some dig in the ground, if Silvestre keeps the ride. Spanish Ace was freely available at 50/1. Not bad for a horse that had already won two handicaps this season and looked the pick of the paddock. He brought home the each way money by sneaking into 4th place.

The Week Ahead (20th May).

Sun 20th   - 3.40 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap Fillies only
Mon 21st   - Blackheath at Musselburgh
            8.10 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 22nd  - 4.00 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 23rd   - 3.40 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
           - 3.50 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 24th  - 7.10 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap
           - 7.20 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Fri 25th     - 3.10 Goodwood - 5f Class 2 Handicap
           - 2.45 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 26th    - Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
           - Haydock - 6f Listed 3YO only
           - Newmarket - 6f Class2 Handicap 3YO only
           - Beverley - 5f Class 2 Stakes
           - Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 27th   - Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
           - Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO Fillies only

 

Wednesday 23rd May - 3.50 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap

It looks like the ground at Ayr will be Good/Soft.

Canadian Danehill would be interesting if the ground was Good or faster, but that seems unlikely. He is still improving, did well to give Off The Record a race at Southwell, and probably he is just as effective on fast turf as the AW. Looking for evidence of effectiveness on easy ground I came up with a blank. Each time he has been tried on Good/Soft or Soft his form seems to have taken a dip. But for the ground I would recommend him at the 9/2 available with Sporting Odds.
However I am pretty sure that he will be inconvenienced by the ground, whatever his trainer says, so No Selection.

Thursday 24th May 7.10 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap

Whatever you read about the draw advantage at Salisbury this year being unclear should be taken with a pinch of salt. The best place to be on fast ground at Salisbury is close to the far rail. This is a difficult race for me to weigh up, there are a lot of unknowns and several horses I do not know a great deal about, but there may be a value bet. Let’s see how the market kicks off. As usual with an evening meeting the Betfair market is still in 40% overround territory this morning

Update 10.30
The market says this is an exceptionally open 18 runner handicap, at 8/1 the field. There are no less than five horses which are favourite with one bookmaker or another. However the horse that interests me most is Russian Symphony. He was apparently well beaten at Windsor on his seasonal debut, in the race won by Abwaab. Actually he was still very much in the race, staying on, when squeezed out 1f out, and eased right down thereafter. I think that he would have been involved in the finish but for the interference. He is a horse who does not do anything very quickly and Windsor would not be his ideal track. Apart from seasonal debuts he normally wears blinkers, and they are back on tonight. He had a 2006 to forget but the Windsor run suggests he is back more in 2005 form, which could be good enough to win this. Other factors in his favour are the plumb draw on the far rail, the stiff track and the ground which should be fast come seven o’clock tonight. Eddie Ahern rides which is OK. Russian Symphony is 16/1 with Ladbrokes, Totesport, Paddy P and Betfred. In my book he would be around 10/1. So only one of several horses with a similar chance, in a very open race, but a value bet imo.

Selection - Russian Symphony at 16/1.

Post Mortem

This race should repay careful study of the video. The first reaction is that Orpsie Boy is a horse to be very interested in next time. He ran good races in top 3YO handicaps last year, notably the William Hill Trophy at York and the Totesport at Newmarket. After that he was disappointing but now at 4YO looks like he could set up a sequence. The second, Third Set is another big scopey 4YO, a half brother of Bonus. He may also have plenty of improvement in him.

As for Russian Symphony, he got a nice position on the rail chasing the leader, but at the business end was suddenly struggling and faded tamely away. There were supporters for him in the early betting with three bookies cutting him into 12/1, but later in the day 20/1 became available with Sporting Odds, and he opened 25/1 on course. The performance and the vibes suggest that he is not the horse he was and that the promising Windsor run is unlikely to be repeated.

The draw bias was conspicuous by its absence in the various races I watched. So wrong on all counts.

Results - 2.50
 

Friday 25th May - 3.10 Goodwood - 5f Class 2 Handicap

Some rain is forecast for Goodwood. At present the ground is Good. It has helped not to race near the stand rail in competitive handicaps this year. If it rains then racing down the centre will definitely be best.
Three last time out winners in the field.

2.15 pm
Rain forecast by yesterdays Racing Post has not arrived.
The most likely winner is Bluebok imo. He gets 6 lbs more than when 2nd to Classic Encounter over C/D/G on the 5th May. Then he looked like going close until the last 100 yds.
Rowe Park has only appeared on my radar in his last two races. He has a substantially tougher task today and from stall 2. Though why he has drifted such a long way in the betting I do not know. As I write this prices almost to 10 have been matched on Betfair !
Loch Verdi is very interesting. She improved through 2006 until she ran into easy ground at York. She is a daughter of Lochsong, and there is a feeling that she might continue to improve as her dam did. Well you can’t really back a hunch like that, first time out. The Lord is going to win soon, but needs softer ground. There has been money for Lethal, who probably has the best draw and Daryll Holland but whether he will be suited by a sharp 5f is anyones guess. He is one for the guessers. I prefer the much more solid Bluebok in a very competitive race.

Selection - Bluebok at better than 9/2, 11/2 generally available early prices.

Post Mortem

I could kick myself. Confidence in the bet was OK until Milton Bradley came on RUK a few minutes before the race and said that he thought the ground was not fast enough. Winning races is difficult enough even when the connections are positive. The time of the race was under standard, but Bluebok faded out of contention early.
Rowe Park showed why I mentioned his Lingfield run on 12th May. He has the ability to travel comfortably behind a fast pace and pick up, which will no doubt see him win more races in the future. Loch Verdi had a very promising seasonal debut. Lethal showed that he is indeed a sprinter with plenty of speed.
I am gutted with this bet, not because it lost, but because I went for the supposedly ‘solid’ option rather than follow the earlier judgement about Rowe Park. To some extent it was a cautious reaction to the Russian Symphony episode, which is no way to bet. Lets move on again.

Results - 3.50

Saturday 26th May - 2.05 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap

Nice 5f puzzle.
Buachaill Dona and Fantasy Explorer represent the very best 5f 3YO handicap form from 2006. We have seen recently from Terentia and Loch Verdi just how strong this form is. After showing lots of promise for 5f, in 6f seasonal debuts at York and Pontefract respectively, both Buachaill Dona and Fantasy Explorer have to go on the short list.

Sierra Vista is a difficult horse to pass and she may well get loose on the lead here. Corridor Creeper looks to be the only one who might take her on, though recently he has tended to sit off the lead. Sierra Vista usually fools me, as she did when holding off Borderlescott, Fonthill Road and all, last time. She has gone very well on ground similar to todays, in the past, but I have a nagging feeling that she will feel the ground whenever the word Firm is in the description. That is the main risk we take. Of the others River Falcon is the most likely, though he would like more ease in the ground and the pace may not be quick enough for him? Adrian has shown before that manoeuvring Buachaill Dona to challenge is not that easy.

Perhaps a mistake to take on the 4YOs but -

Selection - Sierra Vista 5/1 (Stan James and Paddy Power)

Stan James paid 4.25/1, that is a 15% Rule 4 deduction
Results + 0.75

Saturday 26th May - 2.35 Haydock - 6f Listed 3YO

As previously explained, betting on early season 3YO sprints is usually avoided here on grounds that we just do not know enough about them. Other people using other methods would just factor the greater degree of uncertainty into their betting. Its horses for courses. Whatever suits you.

This 3YO race catches the eye though on the issue of ratings and the relative chances of the market principles. Hoh Mike and Prime Defender have been taking the flashy Group race route, whilst Aahayson has been steadily gaining ground via Class 2 and 3 races. This could be more about connections than the relative merits of the horses. Aahayson comes out very well on all the ratings. Yet the market goes 11/8 Hoh Mike, 4/1 Prime Defender and 8/1 Aahayson (in from 10/1). The punting public just go for horses like Hoh Mike and Prime Defender. Maybe they are right and these are the horses which will go on to prove a higher class. However the probabilities are that these horses are bad value bets, win or lose, at the odds. If Hoh Mike or Prime Defender win then the old betting cliches about better a short priced winner than a loser will be flying around.

Aahayson probably has the best draw towards the rails. But this is not a three horse race. For instance City Of Tribes did well to beat Morinqua at Chester and may stay 6f. However Aahayson stands out as a bet, at the price, on what we know.

Selection - Aahayson - 8/1 Paddy Power

Post Mortem

A very good illustration of why I do not usually meddle with early season 3YO sprints. The market was more help than the form book.
I thought that Prime Defender’s performance was right up there with the very best 3YO early season runs, by Sakhee’s Secret and Enticing. He is a tank of a horse and a powerful galloper. Aahayson was quite well backed (8/1 > 9/2) but probably did not run up to his recent form, which may have been due to setting too fast a pace and/or the fast ground. He would not have bothered the first two anyway. If Prime Defender sticks to 3YO company he will be difficult to beat.

Results - 0.25

Saturday 26th May - 3.20 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 3YO Heritage Handicap

On the 12th May I noted three horses for the future - Aahayson, Rowe Park and Sandrey. Two of them won their next races and Sandrey runs in this. I suppose I should be very keen on him. Sandrey was impressive at Lingfield. However he is the Pricewise horse and all the value prices went long ago, It is doubtful that anyone got more than a few quid on at 9/2 or 4/1, and he is best priced 11/4 now. It is believed that Sandrey may need ease in the ground and he will not get that at Newmarket?
On ratings the Makshoof / Genki race comes out well. Whilst most people go for Makshoof, I thought that Genki ran a terrific race considering that he pulled hard for 2f, on what was his seasonal debut, and was carried left in the closing stages to boot. He is lightly raced and trained by top sprint trainer Roger Charlton. Celtic Sultan impressed me at Ripon, with his midrace pace from a bad draw. I expect him to run well.

It will be fascinating to watch but I will not be betting on it.

Saturday 26th May - 2.30 Beverley - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes

Small field 5f Conditions Stakes at Beverley are tricky puzzles which revolve around pace and tactics, as much as ability.
On form Pivotals Princess is best and she will either lead or sit close to Masta Plasta. It will probably be straightforward. Which is why she is an odds on favourite. Baron’s Pit is one to keep an eye on. A very talented (won Group 2 Diadem) but inconsistent horse for Amanda Perrett, on his old form he needs a stiff 6f.

Masta Plasta (drawn 6) could bomb off along the rails, mess it about for Pivotals Princess, and set it up for Gift Horse (drawn 5). Gift Horse is the most likely to pick up the pieces if Pivotals Princess is not at the top of her game. He ran a better race in the Duke of York than 12th place suggests.

Definitely no bet.

Saturday 26th May - 4.00 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap

I like Matsunosuke in this, if the ground is genuinely fast. Playful Dane looks like being favourite which may make Matsunosuke a value bet. The two 5f races at the start of the card should tell us whether the ground is what he wants.

The ground is not ideal. Closer to Good than Good/Firm. It looks like they have watered plenty.

Nevertheless he is 9/2 generally and 6+ (5/1+) on Betfair, which is a decent price imo. The draw is the key factor here.

Selection - Matsunosuke at 5/1 on Betfair.

Post Mortem

Hopeless !! Having worked out that the ground was probably too slow I recommended him anyway. He would have been closer with a clearer run, but that is the name of the game at Beverley. Efistorm was dressed up with nowhere to go for the best part of two furlongs whilst beside him Namir got a dream run up the rail. Unfair isn’t it? Videos of Beverley sprint handicaps invariably give pointers to the future - horses unable to get a clear run and low drawn horses that ran well despite the draw etc. Apart from Efistorm, Bo McGinty and Bahamian Ballet did well from bad draws and Spanish Ace ran well again. Not a consistent horse in the past but he is knocking on the door.

Results - 1.25

Sunday 27th May - 3.50 Newmarket - Class 2 Handicap

Plenty of rain is due to fall in the Newmarket area by 3.50 pm tomorrow. How much this will affect the ground is anyones guess at this point in time. So best to delay final analysis and a selection until late. There are a number horses in the race - Andronikos, Commando Scott, Coleorton Dancer and The Kiddykid - who go particularly well on soft ground. There are also a number who would not be helped if the ground eases - Mujood, Pearly Wey, Ingleby Arch,Two Step Kid and Romany Nights.

3pm
So far you have to be a little wary of the evidence of the watch, based on ladies amateur and 2YO races. However it is probably Good/Soft or slower and the rain is still falling. So lets assume that it will be genuine Soft in 50 mins time.

In those circumstances you have to concentrate on the horses who you know go on Soft, if not revel in it. In addition to those above I think that Trafalgar Bay and Charles Darwin will probably handle the ground. The stand rail has been used less than the centre so, although hard to guess what the jockeys will do, I would rather be drawn low than high. This will be a bit of slog so a 6/7f horse will be more likely than a 5/6f type.

Put all the elements together and you come up with The Kiddykid, Commando Scott and Coleorton Dancer. The Kiddykid is the longest price but arguably has the best recent form. Draw a line through the latest run at Chester. At Newmarket the time before he was beaten 3 lengths by Beaver Patrol off a 2 lb higher mark on fast ground, in a very competitive race.

Selection - The Kiddykid 16/1 (Stan James, Bet365, SportingOdds)

Post Mortem

Unfortunately The Kiddykid did not run close to form and maybe there is something wrong with him. He was well backed opening at 12/1 on course, backed into 8/1. So his price halved inside 30 minutes.
We learnt about the ability of a number of horses to act in the conditions. In particular Ingleby Arch and Pearly Wey showed their first good form on soft ground.
Ripples Maid will be back in the winners enclosure when she has less testing conditions. It did not help that she was allowed to force the pace on the ground, but we have long since known that she is a 5/6f filly, and a stiff 5f, somewhere like Sandown, could bring out the very best in her.

Results - 2.25