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The Week Ahead (3rd August)
Sun 3rd - 3.25 Chester - 6f Listed - Queensferry Stakes
- 3.50 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 4th - 3.15 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Tues 5th - Blank
Wed 6th - Blank
Thurs 7th - 6.15 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 8th - 4.00 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.20 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 9th - 1.10 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 2.20 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.00 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.40 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 10th - 3.40 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.45 The Curragh - 6f Group Three - Phoenix Sprint Stakes
- 3.15 Deauville - 6 1/2f Group One - Prix Maurice De Gheest
Monday 4th August - 3.15 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The going is reported to be just on the easy side of Good (Going Stick 7.9) with a few showers possible.
The most likely front runners are Harbour Blues and Malcheek, though Malcheek is drawn widest which will not help him get to the front.
The best place to be is hard against the stand rail.
Grazeon Gold Blend won off 84 in 2006. He had an interrupted 2007 and is now showing signs of getting back to his form of two years ago. Still only on 78 after his Hamilton win he should go well. What makes him a decent bet is his draw against the stand rail which suits ideally as he has a tendency to edge left.
Selection - Grazeon Gold Blend @ 6/1 (PaddyPower, Skybet, Wiliam Hill)
Sat 9th August - 2.00 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap
This evening the going was Good/Soft (Soft places) and beginning to dry out a bit. However rain is on the way mid to late Saturday morning so the expectation is for Good/Soft or Soft going by 2pm.
There is plenty of pace in this race for a Soft ground 6f. Harbour Blues, Bel Cantor and Valery Borzov can all front run, and High Curragh and Joseph Henry should not be far behind. Which is not to say that I expect an overly strong pace, and on Soft going it is usually better to be close to the pace than have a lot of ground to make up. The least likely to be suited by the going are Joseph Henry, Hotham, Wyatt Earp and Bonnie Prince Blue. Monsieur Reynard has been best at 5f so far. If it gets testing then Zomerlust, Cape, Bel Cantor and Steenberg would be favoured. However I do not expect that amount of rain to fall.
It is likely that the field will race up the centre. If there is a draw advantage we will know after the race.
High Curragh has come second three times this season. He won this race off 85 last year and is now down to 83, which is as low as he has been for over two years. Sooner or later he is going to win off this sort of mark. I suggested him a couple of runs ago at Pontefract, which was a bit of a disaster. However in hindsight his record on stiff tracks is not good and a flat track should suit him better. He seems to go as well on soft going as on fast, judged on his 2nd on heavy going at Doncaster in March.
Selection - High Curragh @ 14/1 (Bet365, Coral)
The rain has come at Haydock and the ground has gone very soft.
New Selection - Zomerlust @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betdirect)
Sat 9th August - 1.10 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Betting on Shergar Cup races is usually to be avoided. There is the uncertainty about foreign jockeys who do not know the track, team tactics and generally jockeys who have not ridden the horses before.
The going is Good, and there should not be a draw advantage.
Decision on a selection in the morning.
Update - Despite three 2nds in the last four races Strike Up The Band has only been raised 3lb. He is 3lb better in than Crimson Fern for a neck beating over course and distance, on going perhaps a little in his favour. Like the betting market I have these two as the most likely winners, with Fathom Five. Of the jockeys riding these horses I prefer Yutaka Take, he has always impressed me as a good judge of pace and none of the other runners normally front run at 5f. However the Shergar Cup is a law unto itself, so it cannot be assumed that the others will obediently allow SUTB an easy lead. It should not rain much before the 1.10pm and 4/1 is a good price taking everything into account.
Selection - Strike Up The Band @ 4/1 (Coral, Sportingbet)
Sunday 10th August - 3.45 The Curragh - 6f Group Three - Phoenix Sprint Stakes
The going is reported as Soft/Heavy.
I expected Snaefell to be favourite for this race. Benbaun is best on fast ground and better at 5f than 6f. Snaefell is the opposite and has his ideal conditions 6f and soft ground. So the Racing Post betting forecast looks all wrong to me. The bookmakers haven’t taken much notice of the RP but still have Benbaun favourite and Snaefell at 7/2.
Selection - Snaefell x 2 points @ 7/2 (PaddyPower best price guaranteed, Stan James, Betdirect)
MEETING ABANDONED
Sunday 10th August - 3.15 Deauville - 6 1/2f Group One - Prix Maurice De Gheest
Marchand d’Or is the obvious choice, but he is not likely to be my sort of odds. Early on Betfair he is trading at around 2.24 or 5/4, and is best priced 11/8 with PaddyPower which is far too short to be of any interest. As US Ranger will be suited by the extra 1/2 furlong and handles soft going well there should not be a great deal between the two again. US Ranger was flat to the boards for the entire 6f at Newmarket, but much closer to the pace and now that Murtagh knows more about him he could be dangerous. None of the others appeal but the front two in the betting would not have to be far below par to give several a chance.
Probably no selection.
The Week Ahead (10th August)
Sun 10th - 3.40 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.45 The Curragh - 6f Group Three - Phoenix Sprint Stakes
- 3.15 Deauville - 6 1/2f Group One - Prix Maurice De Gheest
Mon 11th - 7.20 Windsor - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.30 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 12th - 4.00 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 7.55 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Wed 13th - 3.15 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.05 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 14th - Blank
Fri 15th - 2.35 Nottingham - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
- 2.55 Newbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 6.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 16th - Ripon - 6f Heritage Handicap - Great St Wilfred
- Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap (Greys only)
Sun 17th - Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed - Flying Fillies Stakes
Monday 11th August - 7.20 Windsor - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Far Side Track. On Sunday in the 5f/6f races the fields were moving across towards the far rail.
The going is just on the easy side of Good.
Kelamon is top of my ratings and has an excellent record at Windsor with 3 wins and 2 places from 7 runs. He has won twice for this 7lb claimer and has won off todays handicap mark. Diriculous has yet to prove to be as good in today’s conditions as on the AW. The 3YO Mullein is another threat. Idle Power and Osiris Way should set a good pace.
Selection - Kelamon @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes and Coral)
Tuesday 12th August - 7.55 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Reported Good/Soft going which has probably dried out a bit through Monday. There are some hefty rainclouds due to arrive in the morning so a weather watch is required.
Some of the runners have little or no form on a soft surface, and some of those are unlikely to be suited by it. There is plenty of pace in the race. Peace Offering, Loch Verdi, Befortyfour, and Invincible Force usually front run, and Moorhouse Lad often does. The Lord usually gets on with it but does not really have the pace these days. The Jobber is held up, and Rowe Park and Chief Editor will probably try to track the best pace.
An interesting race and whatever the weather does should give an angle for a bet.
Update - The rain has arrived at Nottingham and the going will be Soft. Only Chief Editor and Invincible Force are known to go well in the soft. Chief Editor has been waiting for this sort of opportunity for weeks.
Selection - Chief Editor @ 3/1 (Skybet)
Wednesday 13th August - 3.15 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The going is supposedly Good/Soft after rain yesterday. The high draw advantage tends to reduce as the going gets softer and the Clerk of the Course’s selective watering for some meetings this summer has knocked confidence in the draw advantage.
But for these factors Namir would be a very warm favourite drawn 13 of 14. In the circumstances it is probably best to wait until at least after the first race to see how the course is riding.
The going is Good/Soft. Foxy Music should set a good pace and the winner will have to stay well. Hard to tell from two 7 1/2 f races whether the far rail is as good as usual. At 4/1 Namir is too short, at 5/1 he is acceptable value. He has a good record on stiff tracks and on give at 5f. So that and the high draw should in theory be ideal.
Selection - Namir @ 5/1 or better SP (6.2 on Betfair)
Saturday 16th August - 4.00 Ripon - 6f Heritage Handicap - Great St Wilfred
Thursday - The going is presently reported as Good/Soft, though it would not surprise me if it was actually Soft judging by the amount of rain they have had in Yorkshire. When the going is on the soft side at Ripon the fastest ground is usually on the far rail. The last six winners of the Great St Wilfred all raced on the far side and of those only Excusez Moi did not race hard against the far rail.
So unless the Clerk of the Course does something tricky the highest drawn horses should have the advantage.
The draw has spread the pace. The most likely front runners are Tamagin (9), Tajneed (11), Patavellian (18), Northern Dare (2) and Valery Borzov (16). If I am right about the draw then only a small group should race along the stand rail. The rest will make for the far side but again, if I am correct, only those who get near the rail should stand a chance.
For me to have a bet the horse would need to be drawn 15-20.
In 20 is Fullandby. He has improved again and is well suited by 6f on softish going. What puts me off of him is the jockey choice of Lee Vickers, presumably for the 3lb claim. He hasn’t ridden a winner since 2006, and this season has been riding mainly over jumps.
In 19 is Ebraam. He handles give in the ground but seems better at 5f.
In 18 is Patavellian. He goes best on give but is 10yo now and in two runs hasn’t yet shown form at last years level that would give him a chance. However he showed more in the Steward’s Cup leading the disadvantaged far side for 4 1/2 furlongs. Philip Robinson riding is a plus. He won last year on Kostar.
In 17 Baby Strange is well suited by conditions and is in excellent form. Unfortunately he has been raised 4lb for being beaten a whisker in two Steward’s Cups, the Scottish and Consolation versions.
In 16 is Valery Borzov. He is well suited by conditions. After flirting with front running in headgear, the headgear was left off last time and he was ridden more conservatively by Francis Norton, putting up a lifetime best. The 6lb raise in the weights will not help. Nor will Adrian riding, as he has shown a tendency to either let Valery Borzov run too freely or disappoint him.
In 15 is Hogmaneigh, who has been off 70 days with foot troubles. After early in his career seeming to be suited by 6f on softish going, and hence a potential Ayr Gold Cup horse, his best performances by a long way, in the last two seasons, have resulted from holding him up off a very fast pace over 5f. For that reason, rather than the absence, I would not fancy his chance.
Ajigolo (drawn 14) would be better suited by a sound surface. Dhaular Dhar (13) would be better suited by 7f. Conquest (12) has only been raised 5lb for winning the Steward’s Cup but I remain a sceptic. Tajneed (11) may have been of interest with a higher draw, but has been off a long while (105 days) which is usually a big negative for a sprinter.
So the short list is Fullandby (9/1), Patavellian (33/1), Baby Strange (10/1) and Valery Borzov (8/1).
Patavellian finished 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup off 100 last September. After two runs he should be at his 10yo best. How good that is we will see. He is now off a handicap mark of 97 and at the prices I am prepared to gamble that will get in the front rank against the far rail and hang on for at least a place. If I was backing one of the others it would be Fullandby, but I fear that he will get stuck on the rail in mid div until too late.
Selection - Patavellian 1 pt each way @ 33/1 (Coral)
Update Friday Evening - No rain today and Ripon has probably dried up a little if conditions have been the same as down the road at Catterick. Showers are forecast for tomorrow afternoon but no heavy rain. The going should be Good/Soft.
Adrian Nicholls has switched to Tajneed and Valery Borzov is now to be ridden by Francis Norton. That changes things. I would expect Norton to get VB near to the rail tracking Patavellian and possibly Tajneed and Tamagin. Like his namesake Valeri Borzov and Usain Bolt(?) things may drop nicely into place so....
Additional Selection - Valery Borzov @ 8/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
Sunday 17th August - Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed - Flying Fillies Stakes
Heavy rain is expected around breakfast time. At present the going is reported as Good/Soft. Some of the better fillies in this race are not at their best on easy ground.
MEETING ABANDONED
The Week Ahead (17th August)
Sun 17th - Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed - Flying Fillies Stakes - Abandoned
Mon 18th - 8.00 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 19th - 1.45 York - 5.4f Heritage Handicap - Symphony Group Stakes - Abandoned
Wed 20th - 3.50 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap - Abandoned
Thurs 21st - 3.15 Great Leighs - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 4.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 22nd - 3.05 Newmarket - 5f Group One - Nunthorpe Stakes - Moved from York
- 4.10 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 5.45 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.20 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 23rd - 3.05 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Hopeful Stakes
- 3.20 Beverley - 5f Listed - Beverley Bullet
- 6.00 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 24th - 2.45 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Tuesday 19th August - 1.45 York - 5.4f Heritage Handicap - Symphony Group Stakes
5f 89yds on heavy ground is about as specialist as sprinting gets. Not many horses go well in heavy ground. And the extra eighty nine yards will make it difficult for a few to last home. The race will take 67-69 seconds which is almost a 6f time.
With these two factors taken into account the list can be reduced to - Strike Up The Band (though worry over a testing 5.4f), Chief Editor (gets really soft ground at last), Fathom Five (some doubts over a testing 5.4f), River Falcon, Invincible Force, The Trader, Luscivious, and Green Park. Cheveton has not raced on very soft ground. New Freedom handled Brazilian heavy going at a much lower grade. These two will be left out of calculations because it is more likely that they will not run to their best form in the ground. Time will tell. Of course Cheveton is a danger. He is on the upgrade and going for a five timer. Rising Shadow and Harrison George go very well in testing ground but need every yard of 6f.
Strike Up The Band has a bad draw near the stand rail where he could well get bogged down in the first furlong. The Trader seems to have deteriorated a lot since his first run of the season, as a veteran sometimes does.
The likely front runners are Morinqua (10), Strike Up The Band (19) and Invincible Force (6), with Loch Verdi (9), if she runs, and Kay Two (15) others who may be front rank. A middle draw is usually better than a high draw, and a low draw could be best of all.
With everything taken into account the ones I like best are Green Park, Invincible Force, Chief Editor and River Falcon.
Conditions are absolutely ideal for Green Park, apart from the draw in 16. He is now 6lb below his last winning mark of 88.
My worries with Chief Editor are whether he will appreciate the extra distance and whether Spencer will sit too far back. River Falcon is back on his last winning mark at his favourite track, so must go well. Invincible Force is 4lb below his last winning mark and was extremely unlucky to find one to beat him over 5f at York on heavy ground back in July. He is very effective front running on soft ground and can stay 6f on a good day.
Whether I am correct to discount the chance of so many because of the going we will see. However I believe that there is exceptional betting value available in this race. A rare thing indeed in this day and age.
Selections - Green Park @ 9/1 (William Hill) and Invincible Force @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Stan James, Betdirect, Betfred etc)
ABANDONED (8.40am Tuesday)
It is a shame that when the going is heavy and winning opportunity is at it’s peak that so many meetings are abandoned. That is two in just over a week.
Thursday 21st August - 3.15 Great Leighs - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
A low draw is best. Harry Up is the most likely front runner and may get a relatively easy lead from his good draw. Cheveton is on a five timer and has improved with every race this Summer. 3YO Hadaf also has a good draw and is a danger.
There is some opposition in the market from Hadaf, Whiskey Junction and Mandurah which puts Cheveton in at about 7/2 or 4/1 which in my opinion is a backable price. Harry Up could be worth a saver with Ladbrokes at 25/1 as he may get an easy lead, because Dvinsky and Mandurah, the only others likely to want to lead, are both drawn very wide.
Selection - Cheveton @ 5.1/ 5.2 with Betfair
11.30am - 4/1 with Sportingbet
Friday 22nd August - 3.25 York - 5f Group One - Nunthorpe Stakes
After heavy rain on Sunday morning (24.4mm according to the York University website) the going is reported as Heavy. Of the better horses in this race few will be suited by 5f on soft going so there is a chance that the field will cut up and be uncompetitive.
I feel an Ante-Post opportunity coming on. This will be weather dependant, and slightly dodgy for that reason, and of course we do not know the draw.
Sunday Update - Rain fallen and weather forecasts of more rain to come suggests three possibilities for the going at York. There are reports of patches of waterlogging and either the ground will be Soft, or Heavy, or the meeting will be abandoned.
There are seventeen 5-day acceptors. Most of these can be eliminated for betting purposes.
Needs 6 furlongs plus - US Ranger, Abraham Lincoln
Needs a sound surface - Sakhee’s Secret (will be a non-runner), Dandy Man, Desert Lord (probable non-runner), Moorhouse Lad (possible non-runner).
Best on a sound surface - Benbaun (handles Good/Soft but not so good on it).
Not run on Soft yet - Kingsgate Native (fine on easy side of Good), National Colour (South African used to rock hard)
Two Year Olds probably not good enough - Flashmans Papers, Shyrl
Others not likely to be good enough - Captain Gerrard, Reverence (though very suited by soft)
This leaves for betting purposes just four of the possible runners - Equiano, Borderlescott, Prime Defender and Percolator, plus Kingsgate Native whose chances should not be dismissed just because he has not raced on v.soft.
It seems that the 2YO Percolator is likely to be neither good enough nor suited by a testing 5f. She is all speed.
Prime Defender seems to be ideally suited by 6f and probably is a few pounds below what is required, having been flattered by most interpretations of the July Cup result.
So, on the basis of what we know, the only ones that I would consider betting on at this stage are Equiano and Borderlescott.
Equiano is best priced 9/2. He has switched from Spain to Barry Hills (won Nunthorpe with La Cucaracha), but has not run since winning the King’s Stand. As an improving 3YO with lots of speed and ability to go in the ground he would be a worthy favourite.
Borderlescott seems to be developing more speed as time goes on (eg Temple Stakes). I was impressed by his quick break and early speed in the Steward’s Cup. He is very effective in the soft. Whilst it should slow the pure speed horses down it should improve his chance. On my ratings he is only behind Sakhee’s Secret, Benbaun and Kingsgate Native. At 14/1 he looks a good each-way bet.
Selection - Borderlescott 1 pt each-way @ 14/1 (William Hill) - Bet Void
The Nunthorpe is being switched to Newmarket to be run at 3.05 on Friday.
The change in track and going means that the race will be analysed afresh. The going is Good. It is unlikely that Borderlescott will be the selection in the new circumstances. All 17 of the 5-day acceptors are possibles again.
Update Thursday pm
It feels very strange to have a Group One 5 furlong race at Newmarket. The going is on the fast side of Good, with only light occasional showers due. They are using the Stand Side Course with the stalls positioned on the stand side. Last weekend the jockeys wandered all over the track apparently oblivious to what looked like a draw advantage on the stand rail. The jockey on Earlsmedic used the draw advantage to good effect on the Friday then they seemed to ignore it entirely. Typical ! In the Greys only race they seemed to deliberately avoid the stand side. I would be looking for a horse drawn on the stand rail if it were not for the issue of pace.
Between them Desert Lord (6), Captain Gerrard (3), National Colour (10), Moorhouse Lad (5) and Equiano (8) have led just about every 5f Group race in England and France this past 18 months. These are the likeliest front runners plus 2YO Percolator, and Borderlescott will probably not be far away. This is enough front runners for anyone, and perhaps a reason, along with the July Course stiff finish, for thinking that there may be a bit of a front runners truce.
Nevertheless the conclusion is that a high draw is a bit better than a low draw, and a tracker or chaser is a better call than a front runner. Otherwise this looks like a straight fight with one of the established stars likely to prevail.
Sakhee’s Secret was several pounds below his 6f form in the Palace House Stakes. He has always looked a 6f horse and it is logical to conclude that he does not quite have the cruising speed of the best 5f horses. Kingsgate Native should find the race just about perfect for him. His Nunthorpe, Prix l’Abbaye and Golden Jubilee runs are some of the best form available. He must have a good chance of tracking the pace and finding enough up the hill as the front runners fade. Ryan Moore on board is a bonus. Equiano’s chance is based almost entirely on the King’s Stand run. His change of stable and two month absence add an element of doubt as to whether he will be quite on the same level as in June. Borderlescott has no going or stamina advantage now so may just fall short. Benbaun seems to have deteriorated this season. Dandy Man has a chance of tracking the pace, but I have no confidence in Godolphin getting the best out of him and I can see Dettori just aiming up the rail with no cover, just about getting to the front, then fading up the hill. So the conclusion is that Kingsgate Native has the best chance. 5/1 would be an attractive price.
Selection - Kingsgate Native @ 5/1 (Totesport, Sportingbet)
Saturday 23rd August - 3.05 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Hopeful Stakes
The going is on the fast side of Good. The course records yesterday were due to a stong wind behind, but nevertheless the ground was drying up rapidly. Racing is switched to the far side course and there will probably be no draw advantage.
Winker Watson is the leader on ratings. Although he has shown excellent form at 6f it looked a sharp trip for him at 2YO when he only just got up to beat River Proud in the July Stakes. You have to think that 7f or 8f will be his best trip. After racing at 8f in the Group One Sussex Stakes a switch back to a fast 6f and in a Listed race at that looks iffy.
Kings Apostle is well suited by fast conditions. His form looks better all the time and he has been bound for Listed and Group races for a while. Borderlescott yesterday emphasised the fact that the top handicappers are well up to winning Listed and Group races.
Balthazaar’s Gift prefers some give and a very fast pace. He does not get his conditions very often and it will surprise me if he manages his best form on today’s quick surface. Damika and Sonny Red both prefer some ease. Strike The Deal is the other obvious contender but wears a visor for the first time.
Selection - King’s Apostle @ 13/2 (William Hill)
Saturday 23rd August - 3.20 Beverley - 5f Listed - Beverley Bullet
The going is described as Soft (Heavy places). When the far side is opened up and rain gets well into the ground the far rail is not the place to be and the usual high draw advantage does not apply. In this race the draw is probably of little importance. Peace Offering is likely to try to make all. The others will just chase him whether he goes to the far rail or somewhere else.
If you look at Peace Offerings record you see wins at Tipperary on Heavy ground and on Soft last week at Nottingham. Very misleading. The going at Tipperary and Nottingham was no worse than Good/Soft. At the risk of having egg on my face I believe that Peace Offering is not at his best on Soft going and today up Beverley’s hill will be too testing for him. There is a chance that the others will be off the bridle early and not run their races but I am keen to oppose Peace Offering.
Advanced seems to be best chasing a very strong pace in the big field handicaps over 6f. So he is not a likely winner. Fonthill Road has been off nearly a year, is suited by 6f and has a bit to find anyway. Which leaves Hoh Mike and Fullandby as the biggest threats to Peace Offering.
Hoh Mike has only had one bad run, which was due to the first time visor, and some people are dismissing him as a dodge pot. Completely ridiculous. Plenty of horses that are perfectly genuine are freaked out by the visor or blinkers and his reaction last time means nothing. Spencer’s exaggerated hold up tactics did not work at Sandown the time before, yet he was not far off his normal form. He looked in top shape at Sandown and I would not dismiss his chance lightly. Whether he goes on very soft ground is another matter. He has been tried on it once and did poorly. He handles Good/Soft well but his very best form has been in faster conditions.
Fullandby performs equally well at 5f and 6f, and still seems to be improving. He handles soft ground well. Perhaps he is best off a strong pace but if I am right and Peace Offering is coming back to them at the end then he should have every chance. At the price he is a good value bet.
Selection - Fullandby @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
Saturday 23rd August - 6.00 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The going is on the slow side of Good. The draw will probably have little effect on the result.
Pace from Merlin’s Dancer, Osiris Way and Idle Power should be strong.
Osiris Way has been knocking on the door and stands a good chance. He would be my pick if it wasn’t for the lightly raced 3YO Film Maker. This one went quite close at Newmarket behind Resplendent Alpha and is almost certainly on the upgrade. He runs off the same mark.
Selection - Film Maker @ 5/1 (BlueSquare, SportingBet, Paddy Power, Betfred etc)
Sunday 24th August - 2.45 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
I didn’t expect to be interested in this race, with so many 3YO fillies involved. However there are good reasons for opposing the two favourites who represent a large slab of the market. Maimoona was impressive at Ripon but she basically just wore down the others on very soft ground that was bordering on heavy. Previously she had not shown form in that league and it may be that the softer it gets the better she is. The going is Good/Soft judged on yesterday’s times. It will have dried up a bit but then they probably had a couple of showers this morning. It remains to be seen if Maimoona can improve again to defy an 8lb rise in weights on this quicker ground.
Siren’s Gift seems be at her very best on a fast surface and can be opposed on genuine Good/Soft ground. Mondovi is interesting on Haydock form but has not run on easy ground either here or in Germany.
Superduper has won her last two races at 6f. She has enough speed to lie handy at 6f but seemed to stay 7f on soft ground at Newbury. To me she seemed to be idling for her last win.
Selection - Superduper @ 8/1 (Sportingbet, Skybet)
Siren’s Gift has been withdrawn, presumably the going is too soft for her.
The Week Ahead (24th August)
Sun 24th - 2.45 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Mon 25th - 3.55 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
- 3.00 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 26th - Blank
Wed 27th - 3.30 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 28th - 3.40 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.00 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 4.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Fri 29th - 4.50 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 30th - Pinpoint - 3.10 Sandown - 10f Heritage Handicap - Best Odds Guaranteed at Betinternet.com Stakes
- 3.45 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.15 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.50 Ripon - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.35 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.45 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 31st - 4.20 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 5.15 Curragh - 5f Group Three - The Flying Five Stakes
- Deauville - 6f Group Three - Prix de Meautry
Monday 25th August - 3.55 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
A real puzzle. Only Shifting Star, Mastership, Mac Gille Eoin and possibly Ebraam could be said to be in good form. Crystany has had a break, before which she was in form. A high draw is an advantage.
So Mastership (12 of 12) and Shifting Star (9) are obvious choices and are vying to be favourite at around 3/1. However it is by no means clear which horses are likely to front run, and something could get an easy lead and spring a surprise. Even Mac Gille Eoin from stall 1 could lead, cross the whole field and at the available 14/1 with VC Bet he is a reasonable bet for those prepared to see their fate sealed within one furlong of the start. However I do not think that he has the natural speed to pull off that manoeuvre.
I thought Shifting Star won with something in hand last time. The bad news though is that the race was probably not particularly strong and he has been raised a harsh 7lb. However if he gets a strong pace he should go close. The same applies to Mastership, who has trainer/jockey indicators in his favour.
The value in the betting is possibly New Freedom. After some excellent runs on Dirt in Dubai he put up a performance in the Wokingham which would have him in as favourite here but for three poor subsequent efforts. He could be suited by the switch from turf to Polytrack and a right hand rail (he hangs right) and could get in the lead here.
All things considered it is a race to avoid.
No Selection
Thursday 28th August - 4.00 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Even without Cerebus a strong pace seems assured. There is Dvinsky, Peter Island, Everymanforhimself and Carcinetto to make sure that there is no hanging about and there should be competition for the lead. So a tracker/chaser should be favoured.
With his draw in 2 and Dvinsky inside him Diriculous looks set up for a good tow. On ratings he is one of the best, he has a good apprentice taking off 5lb and an excellent record on the AW. Diriculous is related to a number of good sprinters and is steadily getting up to their level, having been racing for less than a year.
The 4/1 forecast in the Racing Post would have been good value, but the Betfair nibblers have destroyed that prospect overnight and, with Cerebus out, the best available early was 11/4. However Coral and Sportingbet have gone 3/1 which is OK.
Selection - Diriculous @ 3/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)
Saturday 30th August - 3.45 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Based on the times at Sandown on Friday afternoon the going is just on the fast side of Good, and not as quick as I was expecting.
Although everyone wanted to be close to the far rail in the 2.45, there did not seem to be a great advantage from being against the rail.
However with 17 runners in this handicap any draw advantage that there is will be magnified as the low drawn runners fight for a prominent position or drop onto the rail at the rear behind a wall of horses.
The front runners are in the low half of the draw - Loch Verdi (6), Hoh Hoh Hoh (1), Tabaret (5), Cake (7) and Misaro (8). This could encourage a fast pace and an exaggerated dive for the far rail squeezing out the horses in the middle. Of the high drawn runners Elhamri and Cake are usually prominent.
The horse I have top of my ratings is Safari Mischief. He has been knocking on the door in good races since beating Lord Of The Reins at Goodwood. He has the best draw in 17. One of the best 3lb claimers rides. Keeping things simple he is the most likely winner in a race which could be chaotic and unpredictable.
Selection - Safari Mischief @ 11/2 (generally)
Saturday 30th August - 3.50 Ripon - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going is reported as Good, with a Going Stick reading of 8.3. They are expecting isolated showers.
On Good ground there is normally only a small advantage to being on the far side, not the several lengths seen on Soft in the Great St Wilfred. However which side is best will probably depend on how strong the early pace is on each side.
The most likely front runners are Bel Cantor (14), High Curragh (9), My Gacho (1) and possibly Joseph Henry (17). He’s A Humbug (12) and Gallery Girl (7) should not be far away. The best pace will probably be on the far side.
All things considered I prefer the far side and the David Nicholls duo Joseph Henry and Northern Fling. Machinist, Protector and Rising Shadow are out.
Selection - Northern Fling @ (9/1 VC Bet, Paddy Power)
With Machinist out my hope is that Silvestre switches to Northern Fling?
Saturday 30th August - 4.35 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The 7f handicap on Friday afternoon was won in 1.10 sec fast. So the going is Good/Firm. There is a chance of isolated showers.
The draw as important as ever so in draw order-
1. Topflightcoolracer - Sprang a surprise over course and distance last year but all her form has been on easier ground. Whether she will be as good on fast going is therefore an unknown. If she goes on it and springs back to form she has an excellent chance. The jockey booking does not suggest that this is likely.
2. Supermassive Muse - Subject of one of the more amusing moments of the season so far when on RUK Graham Cunningham rubbished his chance and told us all he had laid him, before he dotted up by 3 lengths at Haydock. A hold up ride and soft ground did the trick then. It seems unlikely he will be able to make positive use of his good draw, although the booking of Darryl Holland suggests that is the plan.
3. Mr Wolf - If he cannot win from his current mark at Pontefract with everything in his favour the chances are he will not be able to hang on at Chester where competition for the lead is much fiercer. Despite his awful draw Foxy Music is likely to give Mr Wolf a fight for the lead.
4. Equuleus Pictor - Non Runner
5. Mandurah - Conditions ideal. Likely to have the pace to lead or lie handy. Adrian Nicholls limitations do not apply at Chester where his ‘take no prisoners’ approach is often an advantage.
Selection - Mandurah @ 6/1 (Betfred)
Sunday 31st August - 4.20 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Surprisingly an interesting betting heat. I am hoping the prices stay something similar to the RP Betting Forecast.
Update 9am - Reported Good ground. Whilst a low draw against the stand rail looks as if it should be favoured in fact there is little or no draw advantage at Musselburgh.
The most likely front runners are Princess Ellis (14), Fol Hollow (2) and Captain Dunne(9). This is a competitive race with very little between a half a dozen of the runners. However Princess Ellis seems particularly suited by Musselburgh. Her record at the track is 3 runs 3 wins, albeit from much lower handicap marks. She has been improving, and knocking at the door from her current mark and now back on her favourite track may find some more. She is a fast front runner and her high draw is probably irrelevant to her chances.
The RP forecast price of 10/1 would have been nice but the best available is likely to be 8/1.
Selection - Princess Ellis @ 8/1 (Bet365, Betfred)
Sunday 31st August - 5.15 Curragh - 5f Group Three - The Flying Five Stakes
Soft going will not really favour Masta Plasta, who is too short a price imo. On my ratings Look Busy, receiving 5lb, comes out best. She is also very suited by the conditions. If she is in the same form as at Beverley 8 days ago she will be hard to beat.
Selection - Look Busy @ 5/1 (Bet365)