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The Week Ahead (28th September)
Sun 28th - 3.15 Ascot - 6f Group 2 - Diadem Stakes
- 1.55 Curragh - 6f Listed
Mon 29th - Blank
Tues 30th - 4.20 Southwell - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Wed 1st - 4.40 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 2nd - 4.20 Newmarket - 5f Listed - Rous Stakes
- 4.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Fillies Handicap
- 7.20 Great Leighs - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Fri 3rd - 7.50 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Sat 4th - 3.10 Kempton - 6f All Weather Heritage Handicap
Sun 5th - 1.15 Longchamp - 5f Group 1 - Prix L’Abbaye de Longchamp
Tuesday 30th September - 4.20 Southwell - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
A big low draw advantage. Unfortunately the horses drawn low (Luscivious, Obstructive, Northern Empire, Canadian Danehill) have been completely out of form, apart from Pawan who seems to need a more testing 5f, like Beverley, to be fully effective at the distance. Of course, he also desperately needs a proper jockey. Green Park in 6 has never raced on the All Weather and will be experiencing masses of Fibresand in his face for the first time.
No Selection
Thursday 2nd October - 4.20 Newmarket - 5f Listed - Rous Stakes
A fascinating race. The betting market should be interesting when it opens up. I assume that the favourite will be either Main Aim or Peace Offering. Neither would be my choice.
Update 8.30am Thursday
As I hoped there are big differences between how the odds makers see this race. Main Aim is the favourite at around 10/3 or 7/2 but there is a disagreement over Peace Offering (10/3 Ladbrokes, 11/2 PaddyP), Starlit Sands (13/2 - 9/1), Hoh Mike (7/1 - 12/1), Siren’s Gift (9/1 - 12/1). It is like the old days pre-Betfair, pre-Racing Post website.
Hold-up horses and chasers should be favoured. We have four fast front runners in Peace Offering, Starlit Sands, Princess Ellis and Day By Day. Siren’s Gift and Hoh Hoh Hoh also race on the pace most of the time. So I cannot see anything apart from a very fast pace here with the race changing quickly up the hill in the final furlong.
With that and ratings in mind my short list is - Judd Street (last year’s winner), Rowe Park (2nd last year with a penalty), Hoh Mike and Main Aim.
At Doncaster on soft ground Main Aim raced like a 6f/7f horse who was much better than the opposition and burst clear when they started to tire. That does not a 5f fast ground horse make. You take on Michael Stoute’s judgement at your peril, and Main Aim may have been showing masses of pace on the gallops, but Stoute’s record with sprinters is nothing special and the tempo of this sort of race is completely different from the Doncaster race. The chances are better than evens that he will be off the bridle within a couple of furlongs.
At Haydock Judd Street got an ideal lead down the far rail and then a nice wide gap just when he needed it. It was like the “perfect” Coolmore team tactics. It will be a tougher today and he is only one of several with a similar chance. Rowe Park was a slightly better horse than Judd Street last year but he did not get the lead he needed at Newbury and was probably below par also. If he came back to his best he would be a leading contender. I expected it last time maybe he will have a laugh today?
But the horse with the best chance is Hoh Mike. OK I know he has driven some punters mad this season but the pattern is looking clear now. His best runs have come in very fast run 5f races on fast ground, namely the 2007 Nunthorpe and 2008 King’s Stand. Apart from the Newmarket race, when a visor was foolishly applied, he has not had his conditions again this season. Take him back three races and he would be favourite for this. The Yarmouth run at 6f, on easy ground and off a slowish pace was a perfectly reasonable effort imo. Now back with his ideal conditions I expect him to win or go close if the high draw is no impediment.
Selection - Hoh Mike 2 pts @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes
Thursday 2nd October - 4.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Fillies Handicap
This race is notable for the number of fillies who seem to be best suited by easy ground and are now facing fast conditions. I put Manzilla, Cape, Perfect Flight, Final Dynasty, Broken Applause, and even to some extent Angus Newz in this category. I know very little about Bastakiya and she does not seem good enough, but I am left with Angus Newz, Masada and Temple Of Thebes. I liked Masada’s last two handicap runs and believe she has a better chance than published ratings would have you believe. However there is every chance that Angus Newz will get an easy lead yet again. Masada is anchored out of the stalls and held up at the back, so really needs a fast pace. Perhaps Temple Of Thebes is the answer?
Update - OK I am sure that Angus Newz will be below her best on this fast going and is vulnerable to one staying close. That is the way that Temple Of Thebes races. A similar performance to her run behind Carcinetto, uninspiring as it was at the time, will probably be good enough. Perfect Flight and Final Dynasty are out. Fillies handicaps usually don’t take much winning and maybe this is a soft one.
Selection - Temple Of Thebes @ 7/1 (Skybet)
and 15/2 BlueSquare
Saturday 4th October - 3.10 Kempton - 6f All Weather Heritage Handicap
A high quality All Weather sprint handicap. At Kempton there is a sizeable high draw advantage.
The usual front runners are Bertoliver (10) and Aahayson (3). Bertoliver, with a new stable now, is very fast indeed but may take a lead for a while as this is 6f, a distance it does not truly stay, see 12th October 2007 at Lingfield. Whether Aahayson will be able to get to the rail from 3 is doubtful. At long last the stable have accepted that Viking Spirit should not be held up, but allowed to bowl along where he is comfortable. This will perhaps be tracking the leaders next to Ebraam. Reverence is another possible front runner and with Adrian booked the plan may be to grab the rail and try to dominate. If that is the plan it’s success depends on whether Bertoliver wants the lead, or not.
Adjusting the ratings for draw the short list comes down to Reverence, Viking Spirit, Fullandby, Ebraam and Pearly Wey, but there is a higher random factor here with several horses not raced on Polytrack so far, and some may be adopting different tactics to normal. Anyway anything drawn 1-6 will have to be good and lucky, and it is best to concentrate on the high draws.
Of the short list Pearly Wey has not run on the AW and Fullandby may struggle to get a good position early. He gives me the impression that he needs daylight in his races. Viking Spirit has good AW form but the one most at home on the surface is Ebraam. In his last race, also at Kempton, he showed good tactical speed to get across from stall 3 but still had to race three wide front rank and can be given extra credit on top of his excellent 2nd place in a similar quality race. Now that he has proved fully effective at 6f and from the ideal stall 11 he should be able the track the leaders, whoever they are, and be in position A entering the final two. He looks to have been aimed at this race for a while. Reverence may be a tough nut to crack if he takes to the surface.
Selection - Ebraam @ 5/1 (William Hill, Skybet)
Sunday 5th October - 1.15 Longchamp - 5f Group 1 - Prix L’Abbaye de Longchamp
An excellent race in prospect with all the usual suspects - Marchand d’Or, Equiano, Desert Lord, Dandy Man, Borderlescott, African Rose (more likely - Prix De La Foret), National Colour, Fleeting Spirit and many more. Sadly Kingsgate Native has been rushed off to stud before we got to know how good he wasn’t, whether he was better at 5f or 6f, his optimum going requirements and much else. We did find out that he was very precocious, which with two Group One wins will be enough for many breeders.
Not mentioned yet is the Hungarian wonder horse, Overdose. Unbeaten in ten races and getting faster and faster. A month ago he trounced Intrepid Jack and Starlit Sands at Baden-Baden and he looks a serious contender.
Ante-Post betting on the Abbaye is fraught with uncertainties, not least the fictional going reports and where the best prices will
materialise. This time it could be better to bet at Pari-Mutuel odds on the day, as most of Eastern Europe will be on Overdose and most of Paris on Marchand d’Or. Waiting may be best if the selection is British.
Update Friday - Looking at Overdose’s races on Youtube you do not see an obvious Abbaye type. He looks like a typical free racing front running six furlong grinder in the mould of Tamagin, Smokin Beau and Get Stuck In, though obviously better than them. There is not the blinding speed from the gate of a front running 5f horse that I was half expecting to see. My impression of the Baden-Baden race was that Starlit Sands did not perform close to her best (6f too far and hanging in) and Intrepid Jack took the scenic route around the wide outside after Overdose had already gone clear. Which is not to say that Overdose won’t be able to front run or win, I was just a little less impressed than I expected to be in the context of the Abbaye.
Update Saturday -
Marchand d’Or may have surprised a few, including me, when he won over 5f at Chantilly on 1st June. However that was on easy ground, they went off too fast and came back to him. I feel that he is primarily a 6/7f horse and will do well to get into the race from the widest draw. However if the going softens a lot he will be dangerous.
Overdose has it all to prove imo. He is not my sort of bet, although he could have been if he had showed lightning early speed from the stalls. However on what I have seen I am sceptical about him being on the bridle at the sort of pace they will be going in the Abbaye. All his racing has been done on the bridle and if I am right the early pace will be a shock to the system tomorrow.
Fleeting Spirit would have every chance on her Temple Stakes form. However she has been off four months and Jeremy Noseda does not seem to be very positive about her being back to her best.
Which, of those at or near the top of the ratings, leaves National Colour and Borderlescott. There are various pros and cons to each of these but Borderlescott beat National Colour fair and square at Newmarket in a course record without recourse to the whip. The computer gives a very high timefigure for that performance and it looks rock solid. The conclusion I have reached is that Borderlescott is one of those sprinters who finds more speed as he reaches full maturity a la My Best Valentine, Desert Lord, Benbaun etc. In all probability he is now best at 5f. The fact that he breaks very quickly helps him deal with the early speed of horses like National Colour. Softening of the going would also be in Borderlescott’s favour compared with several of his rivals.
The front runners are drawn (4) National Colour, (12) Captain Gerrard, (16) Desert Lord, (13) Strike Up The Band, and (15) Overdose. Borderlescott does not need cover so the draw in 9 will allow Pat Cosgrave to latch onto whichever horses are going best.
The current price is good imo. Waiting for the Pari Mutuel may get even better odds, but if something around 9/1 or 10/1 became available it would be a reason to top up.
Selection - Borderlescott @ 7/1 (Stan James, Betdirect) VOID RACE
Update - Apparently they have had some heavy rain overnight in Paris with more to come. The going is supposedly Soft.
This is in Borderlescott’s favour compared with National Colour, Fleeting Spirit and several of the others. However the spectre of Marchand d’Or looms if it gets very soft. If so a bet on Marchand d’Or at 5/1 ( Ladbrokes, Coral, VC) looks the way to go.
Further Update - The reports of heavy rain were rubbish eminating from ATR and the BBC. Paris have only had 1mm and may get a little more. The going is reported as Good/Soft though I would guess that it is a softer spongy layer sitting on top of fairly quick ground.
Due to a false start the race is due to be rerun at 5.30pm BST. As some of the horses will have taken plenty out of themselves, Fleeting Spirit did not go a yard, and some (Abraham Lincoln and Marchand d’Or particularly) were pulled up quickly the rerun will be much more of a lottery and probably best avoided for betting purposes.
The Week Ahead (5th October)
Sun 5th - 1.15 Longchamp - 5f Group 1 - Prix L’Abbaye de Longchamp
Mon 6th - 2.50 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 7th - 3.50 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.20 Folkestone - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 8th - Blank
Thurs 9th - Blank
Fri 10th - 2.55 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap - ABANDONED
- 3.20 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 3.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Sat 11th - 1.45 Ascot - 6f Group Three - Bengough Memorial Stakes
- 4.40 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
- 2.10 Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Consolation race for Sprint Cup
- 3.15 Musselburgh - 5f Heritage Handicap - York Sprint Cup
Sun 12th - 4.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.30 Bath - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Tuesday 7th October - 4.20 Folkestone - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going is now Soft
Haajes is on a roll and will be difficult to beat in these suitable conditions. It is not just that he is winning. He has that look of a sprinter in peak form. So of course he is at very cramped odds. Godfrey Street is a soft ground front runner who is capable of springing the occasional surprise. If she could get on the lead Mango Music would probably be able to hold them off, but I do not really believe she can beat Haajes, so the race is best avoided.
No Selection
Friday 10th October - 3.20 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Low draws have a significant advantage.
Best One comes out top of my ratings. He has been running very consistently and in the last two races briefly looked like scoring off higher marks on turf, first beaten by Blessed Place on soft going at Sandown, then by Tony The Tap on easy ground at Leicester. In both races he just looked to run out of stamina in the final half furlong. He has won on the All Weather at Lingfield and has a good draw. Luck in running will be important but he looks value at the available odds.
Selection - Best One @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365)
Friday 10th October - 3.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Low draws have a small advantage.
This seems an open race to me but two take the eye. Royalist and Mutamared.
As expected Royalist found 5f at Haydock a bit too quick for him. He broke well and disputed the lead in the stand group but always looked to be going a stride too fast. He couldn’t quite match Fantasy Explorer in his group in the penultimate furlong but kept on well enough. This was clearly his best ever run and he looks to be still improving. He hasn’t raced on Polytrack but 6f should give him a much better chance. His draw in 9 is probably not much of a disadvantage, he should get a good early position if he breaks like he did at Haydock.
It would probably be a mistake to write Mutamared off just yet. On his seasonal debut in May he was beaten four lengths in that hot handicap that follows the 2000 Guineas off a mark of 97. The horses that beat him that day almost all went on to win good races, King’s Apostle, Hogmaneigh and Knot In Wood, Damika, Fullandby and Baby Strange. He is not a horse that takes much racing and he needs a sound surface, but even so his season since has been disappointing. He needs to be covered up behind a strong pace over 6f for best results. Basically he hasn’t had anything close to his optimum conditions in the last three races. The race he ran in last time, a 5f Claimer at Great Leighs, suggested to me that there is plenty of life left in him. Off a modest pace he soon got a good position on the rail going comfortably. When the leader Harry Up went for home 1 1/2 furlongs out he made up ground but did not quite have the speed to get to the leaders. He ran 5f as you would have expected if he was at the level of his good old form. Mutamared is now on a mark of 87. He also has a poor draw but he travels well and can usually can get a good position in a race.
It is a gamble but he would probably be running in more Claimers if Kevin Ryan thought he could not win off this mark. He has a record of one run one win on Lingfield AW.
It is a tough choice between Royalist and Mutamared, but Mutamared is undoubtedly the better value at the available odds.
Selection - Mutamared @ 15/1 (Canbet and 14/1 plenty of places including Ladbrokes and Tote)
Saturday 11th October - 1.45 Ascot - 6f Group Three - Bengough Memorial Stakes
The going is supposed to be Good/Soft. It is just on the easy side of Good. In the first race the first and second came up the stand rail on their own.
This looks like a rerun of the Diadem with seven of the better horses reopposing. The Diadem was run at a modest pace with a bunch finish. This one looks like being the same. So the best chance probably lies with a horse that races handy and is drawn near the stand rail. Prime Defender seems to be the most likely one of those that is amongst the highest rated. Sir Gerry is the most obvious danger. However these late season pattern races often establish a new pecking order.
Selection - Prime Defender @ 8/1 (Betfair)
Saturday 11th October - 2.10 Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Handicap - York Sprint Cup Consolation Race
Two very fast front runners in here, Princess Ellis and Foxy Music, both from the same stable. It makes me wonder what their tactics will be although Eric Alston will I am sure play it fair. The other stable runner Quiet Elegance would be suited by a speed duel going on up front.
Princess Ellis is likely to lead down the stand rail, pressed by Kay Two and Fol Hollow at a respectful distance. The Princess has a super record at Musselburgh, but Ishetoo caught her here.
My short list is Princess Ellis, Rasaman, Hypnosis, Foxy Music and Hotham. All horses who have been knocking on the door. Not one horse in this lineup has won in the last two runs. Which is surprising.
Princess Ellis may well make all down the rail but in a 16 runner handicap I am not keen to be taking 7/2 on a horse that has been beaten three times off a lower mark despite being in the form of her life. Yesterday’s rain was also not ideal for her. There seems to an error in the Racing Post which says in the ratings table that she is racing off 87 but the weights say 90. Some punters may be fooled into thinking she is 3lb better off than she is.
Even his greatest admirers could not describe Rasaman as consistent. Even when in form he throws in the odd stinker. Last time he did so but the tongue strap had been left off. Nevertheless he has won two and come second twice in his last six runs. At Doncaster on 10th September he was just touched off by Judge N Jury in a blanket finish. That day he raced off 79 on soft ground which is supposed not to suit him. Today he races off 80 and has the useful Neil Brown’s 3lb claim in his favour. Though running under the ownership name Royston Vasey, Rasaman is actually owned by blue comedian Roy ‘Chubby’ Brown. Two tongue straps required? Anyway he seems to have as good a chance as any apart from The Princess and at the current prices is the value.
Selection - Rasaman @ 22/1 (VCBet)
Saturday 11th October - 3.15 Musselburgh - 5f Heritage Handicap - York Sprint Cup
Good (Good/Soft places) going apparently. They had rain yesterday but it should be a dry day today.
There probably isn’t much draw advantage in these conditions. Although the track looks like it should favour low draws the stats say not really. The pace looks a little stronger on the stand side with Captain Dunne (5) trying to make all and Hamish M (7) a confirmed front runner.
These heritage handicaps at Musselburgh are tough. However three horses stand out a little from the crowd - Siren’s Gift, Ishetoo and Cheveton. With the strongest pace near the stand rail Ishetoo should get a good early tow. Siren’s Gift will probably not get a lead and should be prominent from the start from stall 15. That makes her task a little tougher but she has Probert claiming 5lb on her side.
Selections - Siren’s Gift @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) AND Ishetoo @ 14/1 (William Hill, Tote, Skybet etc)
Saturday 11th October - 4.40 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
There looks to be a significant advantage with low drawn horses. I feared that Michael Hills might not take Prime Defender to the rail, and unfortunately that proved to be true. Michael has always been bottom of the class when it comes to sprint draw advantages. The two that fought out the finish, Conquest and Zidane, were on the faster strip throughout.
Efistorm has exactly the same Ascot conditions as when he was an impeded 3rd behind Cheveton. That run led me to select him for the Pontefract race where he won off the same handicap mark as today. His second win off 83. In apprentice races it can be important to be with one of the best apprentices. Luke Morris is certainly that. He has a low draw in stall 3. If they do the normal thing in apprentice races and go off too fast then Efistorm should be staying on strongly at the end, hopefully on the faster strip.
Selection - Efistorm @ 9/1 (Sportingbet)
The Week Ahead (5th October)
Sun 12th - 4.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.30 Bath - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 13th - 4.40 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Tues 14th - Blank
Wed 15th - Blank
Thurs 16th - Blank
Fri 17th - 4.20 Newmarket - 6f Fillies Listed - Boadicea Stakes
Sat 18th - 3.35 Catterick - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 19th - 4.55 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Sunday 12th October - 4.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The times for the first two races suggest that the going is softer than Good/Soft, at least on the round course.
Phantom Whisper is back on the mark he won off by two and a half lengths on soft going at Chepstow. He has been trying 7f unsuccessfully but is suited by chasing a sprint pace. However his tries at 7f have at least brought his mark down again. Idle Power in the race now bearing his name will have his ideal conditions but he seems just on the decline. Holland is booked for Phantom Whisper and the signs are postive.
Selection - Phantom Whisper at 15/2 generally.
Friday 17th October - 4.20 Newmarket - 6f Fillies Listed - Boadicea Stakes
Good going. The far side course is being used so high numbers are against the far rail where on occasions it has seemed to be an advantage to race.
Fillies Listed races never feel like a predictable betting medium, but neither have any other types of sprint, for a while. The Boadicea Stakes has been run five times. Two favourites have won and there has been one 50/1 shocker, Coconut Squeak.
The best filly in the race Silver Touch has looked to need 7f plus on each occasion she has been tried over 6f. So it is intriguing that the trainer thinks it is worth trying again. She is usually held up and, at 6f, fails to make much progress. The booking of Daryll Holland suggests to me that new tactics may be tried.
Laddies Poker Two will be quite a short priced favourite on the strength of her win in a handicap at Ascot. You can only expect her to progress in what is only her fourth race. There are probably one or two others, who have yet to show the true extent of their ability, lurking in the field. Bastakiya and Red Dune are possibles.
Angus Newz could get an easy lead on the rail, but it is more likely that something will take her on, probably Topflightcoolracer. The last race where Temple of Thebes was pushed up from the stalls to press her throughout the first four furlongs shows just how tactically vulnerable Angus Newz is. Which makes it amazing that she has won 13 times, including three Listed races.
Mullein and Perfect Flight probably need more ease in the ground.
Laddies Poker Two would be the selection but she is not a backable price in a race that is much more open than the market suggests.
No Selection.
Saturday 18th October - 3.35 Catterick - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going is Good/Soft with a little rain last night and a touch more expected.
A low draw is usually an advantage unless it is very soft.
An open race with three horses in the form of their lives (Judge N Jury, Haajes and Hotham). But they have zoomed up the handicap as a result. Judge N Jury has been put up a whopping 13lb for winning the Ascot Apprentice race. A good apprentice claiming 5lb and a high draw were probably factors in the wide margin of that win and the horse has a very big task from a mark of 98. Haajes has won 3 of the last 5 and risen from a mark of 73 to 95. Hotham has gone up least of the three, just 4lb for the Musselburgh win.
As a result Hotham has probably got the best chance on form but Catterick is a very sharp five furlongs and one wonders whether it won’t be too sharp for Hotham. He is also drawn 15.
The best pace is in the low numbers - Judge N Jury (1), Final Dynasty (2), Captain Dunne (4), Secret Asset (5) and Misaro (6). Fol Hollow (13) is perhaps the only one of the high draws likely to be prominent. Unless the inside is too churned up I think the likely winner will come from stalls 1-6.
Captain Dunne makes some appeal if he can dominate. He has gone up 3lb for his third at Musselburgh and so is probably no better than fairly treated now. He will be pressed hard for the lead.
Secret Asset could well have been the selection on fast ground. Total Impact (3) also has been best on a sound surface and a stiffer track would help too.
Surprisingly this leaves me with Final Dynasty. She is trained by Geraldine Rees who has proved adept at getting sprint fillies to run well, out of the blue. Proud Boast, Piccolo Cativo and Topflightcoolracer are the others who spring to mind. Final Dynasty was 50/1 when beaten a head by Mecca’s Mate in an Ayr Listed race last year with Joe Fanning aboard. It doesn’t really bother me that Final Dynasty has not run for 357 days. Geraldine Rees often gets them fit to do their best first time out and she has been waiting to get the right ground for Final Dynasty for a few weeks, withdrawing her on the day of the race a couple of times. Conditions are now right and Final Dynasty at 88 is only 1lb higher than when she won at Ponte, having dropped from 99 only three runs ago.
Selection - Final Dynasty @ 25/1 (William Hill) and 22/1 (Totesport)
The Week Ahead (19th October)
Sun 19th - 4.55 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Mon 20th - 3.10 Pontefract - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 21st - Blank
Wed 22nd - 3.10 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 3.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Thurs 23rd - 3.05 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 24th - 3.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 8.40 Dundalk - 5f Listed - Mercury Stakes
Sat 25th - 2.25 Doncaster - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 8.20 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Sun 26th - Blank
Monday 20th October - 3.10 Pontefract - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Soft going. Low draw usually best.
There should be a fast pace here Mr Wolf and Foxy Music. Kay Two often races front rank but is well drawn to track the front runners in this race. However there are better handicapped horses in the race, though these are mostly drawn high and I am drawn again to Efistorm, who has his ideal conditions. He is 1lb lower than when winning over course and distance with Hayley Turner riding. The draw and trainer form are a worry. Efistorm never had a chance from the low draw at Ascot last time, and is worth another chance at the odds.
Selection - Efistorm @ 16/1 (generally)
Wednesday 22nd October - 3.10 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Low draw best. Though Tabaret and Lone Wolfe are drawn 7 and 8 they are the most likely front runners. Something tracking those two close to the rail will be in the best position.
Beat The Bell is a 3YO late foal who seems to be improving quickly. The way he kept in touch with Mr Wolf at Wolverhampton, and then went right away from the field in the final furlong impressed. He seems reasonably leniently handicapped on that run and if finding more improvement will be hard to beat. He clearly has plenty of tactical speed, yet stays 6f well. The price is short but value imo.
Evens And Odds is now well handicapped but I do not like the wide draw at Great Leighs.
Selection - Beat The Bell @ 3/1 (Sportingbet)
Wednesday 22nd October - 3.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
The likely front runners are Major Eazy and Mac Gille Eoin. Diriculous and Oldjoesaid are well positioned to track them.
Apart from Advanced, who shows his best rarely and only then in fast run big field races, Oldjoesaid stands out on ratings. His efforts in the Portland and at Kempton (from a bad draw) suggest that he is fully effective at 6f. He has the plumb draw and should get in a nice position tracking the leaders.
Selection - Oldjoesaid @ 10/3 (Skybet, Blue Square, Sportingbet)
Friday 24th October - 3.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Good going. The Going Stick reading was 8.1 first thing Thursday morning, and there has been some rain. The going may be a little on the easy side for one or two eg Orpsie Boy, but not testing enough for several eg Skhilling Spirit, Rising Shadow, Against The Grain, Cape, Kaldoun Kingdom and Zomerlust.
Whilst the draw stats suggest that there is little bias, the tendency is usually for most of the field to edge towards the stand rail and the low draws tend to get a bit isolated. Perhaps this will not happen in this race as the best pace is drawn low with Bel Cantor (5) and Celtic Sultan (1). Others who may be prominent are Carcinetto (12), Brassini (19) and Great Charm (20).
In respect of the trip Dhaular Dhar really needs 7f, and Ishetoo and Fathom Five would probably have better chances at 5f. It is also looking like Ishetoo is best fresh.
Update - Only 1mm of rain overnight. The going around the back has been changed to Good/Soft but the straight is still Good (GS 7.9). The straight drains v quickly these days.
On the assumption that the soft ground was important in Against The Grain’s Ayr Silver Cup win my short list is down to - Artimino, Great Charm, Brassini, and Bel Cantor. On the evidence of Kempton the handicapper may have just caught up with Shifting Star, though he could have come on again in the two months since.
Bel Cantor seems to be at his very best when it is soft, though winning on Good going at Ripon when he dominated over on the far rail. Perhaps conditions will be a little quick for him. Artimino may just lack the pace to get into a quick 6f. However chasing the front runners in the low numbers could be in his favour. Great Charm is a 3YO late foal who could still be improving, however he may be at his very best on easy going. Off the same mark he was only 2 lengths behind Laddies Poker Two at Ascot. Lastly Brassini was just caught by Phantom Whisper at Goodwood, is due to be raised for that 3lb but runs off the same mark. Alan Munro is back on board having ridden him for both wins this year. Brassini is tough, versatile both going and tactics wise, and has the speed to stay front rank against the stand rail which is a tactic which often works at Donnie. In a race where you can doubt the chances of most of the runners on going, distance, or current form Brassini looks to be quite good value at 12/1.
Dabbers Ridge is out.
Selection - Brassini @ 13/1 (Sportingbet)
Friday 24th October - 8.40 Dundalk - 5f Listed - Mercury Stakes
Three high class British sprinters take on lower rated Irish handicappers. On ratings Borderlescott should shade it but 5f round a turn will be on the sharp side for him. So the choice is between the Nicholls pair, if the odds allow it.
Update - The draw has been kind to Peace Offering in 1. Less so to Masta Plasta (8) and Borderlescott (7). The start will be very important but PO showed at Newmarket, tracking Princess Ellis, that he doesn’t have to front run. Whilst inconclusive because of the circumstances it looked like Borderlescott was a little tapped for early speed at Longchamp, and Dundalk definitely looks a speed track. Adrian won on Masta Plasta at Chantilly last time so he’s choosing PO in preference is a good pointer imo.
Selection - Peace Offering 2pts @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)
Saturday 25th October - 2.25 Doncaster - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Friday’s 6f handicap established that the going is no slower than Good. They raced down the centre and there was a major advantage for the 6f/7f hold up horses that got plenty of cover from the headwind. The chances are that no significant rain will arrive at Doncaster by 2.25pm.
There is pace stretched across the track with front runners Captain Dunne (19), Judge N Jury (16), Kay Two (10), Hamish Mcgonagall (6) and Turn On The Style (4) spread out evenly, plus a few other prominent runners. Perhaps they will split into two groups. If yesterday is a guide then front running will be a disadvantage.
There is a long short list - Cheveton, Judge N Jury, Fantasy Explorer, Haajes, Kay Two, Hotham, Hamish McGonagall, Fol Hollow Piscean and Aegean Dancer.
I will go with the favourite Cheveton. He has run two outstanding races in the Portland and at Musselburgh, running out of stamina inside the final furlong in the first and looking the winner from a bad draw until caught on the post in the second. He is 3lb higher but now has a good 5lb claimer taking the weight off. He should be able to get shelter and a good lead.
Selection - Cheveton @ 17/2 (Coral) or 8/1 generally.
Friday 7th November - 3.00 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Soft going (Going Stick 6.1). A high draw is probably best on the soft.
Two front runners, Cape Royal if he gets a reasonable start and Le Toreador.
Of the favourites you would think that Johannes and Artsu will find this a bit sharp, and The Tatling would be better on quicker ground. They had 3mm of rain overnight and probably some more this morning so the going should be genuinely soft.
Blazing Heights has won this race in the last two years. His three wins from 43 runs is a bit below par and the hold up tactics often look promising and he is often well backed, with no reward. Recent form gives the impression that he is only reasonably handicapped, but that may be misleading and the 53 day break since the last run could be significant. Cape Royal could be well handicapped now that the stable are back in some sort of form. He goes well on very soft ground and is capable of making all. At this time of year though the pin is mightier than the formbook so it’s best avoided.
No Selection
Saturday 8th November - 2.35 Doncaster - 6f Listed - Wentworth Stakes
Soft going (Going Stick 5.9) with more rain expected. No significant draw advantage.
More than enough pace in this race from Aahayson (15), Welsh Emperor (1), Angus Newz (3), Judge N Jury (9), and possibly Galeota (6) and Philario (7). The shape of the race, going and headwind could favour a chaser or hold up horse, and put an emphasis on stamina.
Amongst the favourites there remain a number of questions to be answered. When with Mark Wallace, Chief Editor was thought to need give and be best at 5f. The switch to Michael Jarvis produced a remarkable improvement in form at 6f on Good/Firm. Did Wallace get it completely wrong or will Chief Editor produce last time’s form on very soft going? Judge N Jury has looked to be a 5f specialist. Will he be able to maintain his strong front running over the extra furlong? Main Aim looked impressive over C and D on slow ground off a handicap mark of 90. Will he improve further? Is he good enough? Will he be as effective on even softer going?
These three, Aahayson and Zidane would appear to be the most likely winners, unless it got very testing in which case the 7f mudlarks such as Welsh Emperor, Skhilling Spirit and Against The Grain would come into it.
The first three races on the card are over 6f and 7f, and therefore a good guide as to conditions will be available before a decision has to be made.
Update
0.5mm of rain overnight. The first two races were run in Heavy ground times.
This could be a race for the true 6f/7f mudlarks. If so, the most likely beneficaries of conditions are Aahayson, Against The Grain, Skhilling Spirit, Welsh Emperor and Cape. The very slow conditions may lead to the front runners backing off, so there is probably no advantage for the hold up runners. However this is a very open race.
No Selection
Summary of 2008
After a promising start to the season and another excellent July things looked good all the way through to the Autumn. However a thoroughly disappointing end to the season saw the profit margin cut right back. The abandonment of York, then Haydock, and the void Prix l’Abbaye all low points best forgotten.
135 bets made (134 in 2007)
1 void (withdrawn not under orders) (2)
111 lost (112)
23 won 17.2% (20 15.1%)
111 points lost
120.45 points won
= 9.45 points profit
7.1% profit on investment
98 selections shortened in the betting (98)
14 SPs were the same (10)
22 selections went off at longer odds (24)
The extremely similar 2007 and 2008 patterns are a bit spooky. However the number of potential betting opportunities will remain fairly constant. So unless the method changes consistent results can probably be expected. As the profit margin is not what I am looking for the method will have to change in 2009.